Research & Commentary Results

A senior Iraqi delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to coordinate “joint military efforts” between the two countries. According to the Iranian media reported, Lieutenant General Othman al-Ghanmi, the chief of staff of Iraqi Armed Forces, and his Iranian counterpart Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed two key issues: joint counterterrorism measures along the two countries’ common frontier and how to respond to the Iraqi Kurdistan’s push for independence.

A spokesman of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) has said that the paramilitary forces will “not rush to a civil war sought by” Iraqi Kurdistan’s President Masoud Barzani, but cautioned that P.M.F.

Iranian-aligned Iraqi militant leaders continue to threaten violence against the Kurdish Regional Government (K.R.G.) over the independence vote on Monday. “Kurdistan’s referendum has no value and the resistance will take a series of measures to respond,” said Jafar al-Husseini, the spokesman of the Hezbollah Brigades, an Iranian-sponsored militia group within the Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.). “Officials in Kurdistan are American tools in Iraq and the region.

Iranian leaders and state-run media outlets reacted angrily to Iraqi Kurdistan’s decision to hold an independence referendum on Monday, and threatened retaliatory actions against Erbil. Tehran halted all flights to and from Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq and the Iranian military launched war games near the Kurdish border. Senior Iranian officials stressed that the Islamic Republic rejects the plebiscite and described it as an “Israeli and American plot” to divide Iraq and counter Iranian influence in the region.

Turkey has been threatening economic sanctions and military action against its long-time ally, the Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) over Erbil’s decision to hold an independence vote.

Read the full interview on the Cipher Brief. 

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, W. Robert Pearson, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Kurdish independence referendum and how it will impact the K.R.G.’s negotiations with Baghdad, Turkey’s limited options to respond to the referendum, growing ties between Turkey and Russia, and the mounting political pressure on Iran’s President Rouhani amid President Trump’s attacks on the nuclear deal.

An Iraqi militia group today accused the Kurdish peshmerga forces of having “occupied” the province of Kirkuk and stressed that his forces are ready to “liberate disputed regions” in Iraq. “The Iraqi government should act with determination to liberate Kirkuk from separatist paramilitaries before it is too late,” Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-sponsored group fighting in Iraq and Syria, said in a statement as Iraqi Kurds were casting their ballots for an independence referendum.

Iranian leaders strongly denounced today’s referendum vote for the Iraqi Kurdistan region and warned that the move could have serious ramifications for Iraq and the broader region.

Qais al-Khazali, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia group Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, has accused the Kurdistan Regional Government of executing an “Israeli project” by dividing Iraq and warned that his forces will not allow it to happen. “The enemies of Imam Hussein raised the flag of the homosexuals in Erbil at the wishes of the Israelis,” he said in a speech to his followers.

While much of the international dialogue concerning the Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s independence referendum has concerned will of “Kurdish people,” the media and international community have ignored the fact that the Kurds themselves are deeply divided on the issue.

A prominent Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia group has rejected a U.N.-sponsored initiative on the Iraqi Kurdistan and warned that Erbil’s plan to hold an independence referendum is a “foreign conspiracy” that will destabilize Iraq. Earlier today, the political bureau of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, a unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), issued a statement calling for unity in Iraq and rejected a U.N.-sponsored initiative on Kurdistan.

On Thursday, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the operational chief commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, announced the start of the first phase of a military operation to liberate the town of Hawija in the disputed province of Kirkuk. The P.M.F. vice-chairman explained that the offensive began from four main fronts: the Iraqi security forces and P.M.F. paramilitary troops will first capture al-Shirqat, a Sunni Arab town in Salahuddin Province, and then advance into Hawija.

The upcoming independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan is partially a consequence of politicization of the Kurdish constitutional demands by Iraqi political leaders. The Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) was officially recognized by the Iraqi state when Saddam Hussein’s regime fell in 2003 and the new government installed a federal system. In 2004, the Transitional Administrative Law established the Iraqi Transitional Government, and officially recognized the K.R.G. for the first time in the history of the Iraqi state.

On Monday, the new chief commander of Iran’s Army said Israel had a maximum life span of 25 years and that the Jewish state would perish even earlier if it “makes any mistake” over its remaining lifetime. “The notion that the Zionist regime of Israel will not be existing 25 years from now does not mean that it would have a full time span of 25 years to live,” Tasnim News Agency quoted Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi as saying. He also warned that any Israeli mistake would result in the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv.