Research & Commentary Results

Iranian officials and state-run media outlets continue to label the recent Iraqi Kurdish leaders’ push for independence as an “Israeli project” aimed at countering Iran’s influence in the region. Grand Ayatollah Hossein Nuri Hamedani, a senior Iranian cleric, said this week that Tehran would not “allow a new Israel to take shape in the region.” An article in Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), echoed a similar view.

On September 25 Iraq’s Kurdish region pressed ahead with a controversial independence referendum. It had a high voter turnout of 73%, 93% of whom voted in favor of independence. The referendum is technically non-binding but it has sparked a political crisis with threats of action against the Kurdish region from its neighbors, Turkey and Iran, as well as Iraq’s central government. The United States also opposed the vote. MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, and Ahmad Majidyar join host Paul Salem to discuss the implications of the vote and what happens next.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Iran, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s efforts to push for dialogue after the Kurdish independence referendum, the pending indictment of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, signs of progress in the reconcilliation attempt between Hamas and Fatah, and the Saudi king’s visit to Moscow.

Prime Minister Modi’s 2015 visit to the U.A.E. and subsequent events have seen India’s view of the region undergo a fundamental shift. This essay, the first of two parts, shows how New Delhi has come to regard the Gulf more as a source of investment and less as a source of energy and visas; and has begun to take a more strategic and military view of the region.

On Monday, the new chief commander of Iran’s Army said Israel had a maximum life span of 25 years and that the Jewish state would perish even earlier if it “makes any mistake” over its remaining lifetime. “The notion that the Zionist regime of Israel will not be existing 25 years from now does not mean that it would have a full time span of 25 years to live,” Tasnim News Agency quoted Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi as saying. He also warned that any Israeli mistake would result in the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv.

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Charles Schmitz, Jonathan M. Winer, and Yousef Munayyer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Sabah’s upcoming visit to Washington, recent clashes in Yemen, the French Foreign Minister’s trip to Libya, and the U.N. Human Rights Council’s discussion on Israel/Palestine.

MEI experts Paul Salem, Will Wechsler, Marvin Weinbaum, and Ahmad Majidyar discuss current issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and U.S. policy and strategic interests in the region.

Israel has weathered the campaign to oust Bashar al-Assad far better than its neighbors. Unlike many others, Israel was never a true believer in the failed effort to topple the Assad regime, preferring an opportunistic rather than a principled strategy that aimed at keeping Israel out of harm’s way.

The challenges of postwar Syria, however, may prove more daunting. Israel must now deter any interest by Syria’s Arab and Iranian allies to deploy military forces in Syria against it.

Even before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the Black Sea resort of Sochi last Wednesday for his sixth consultation in two years with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow’s representative in Tel Aviv laid out a soothing if improbable vision of a Syria free of Iranian troops and Shiite militias.

Israelis and Palestinians tend to be invested in the notion that their conflict is unique in its intractability. But other conflicts have reached a measure of resolution, or at least extended periods of non-violence. Learning from their limited success can offer insights and key policy implications; learning from their failures can provide valuable warnings and lessons. Comparing conflicts can even humanize what’s happening in Israel and the occupied territories.

Jared Kushner was on a Middle East mission last week attempting to do what at least half a dozen U.S. emissaries and special presidential envoys have failed to do for more than two decades: putting the peace process on track toward concluding a final settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. But there was a marked change in the U.S. tone, as Kushner, accompanied by Special Envoy for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt and Deputy N.S.A. Adviser Dina Powell, met with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt before heading to Israel and the West Bank.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow was closely monitored in Tehran.

Al-Qaeda appears set to make a comeback in Pakistan, with battle-hardened militants returning from Syria and Iraq and eyeing for the resurrection of al-Qaeda in Pakistan.[i] A new terror group, Jamaat ul Ansar al-Shariah Pakistan, surfaced in June 2017, and is comprised of fighters who have returned from the Middle East.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Paul Salem, Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the upcoming trip by the U.S. delegation headed by Jared Kushner to Israel/Palestine, Iraq’s anti-ISIS operation in Tal Afar, President Trump’s upcoming announcement on U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan, Iran’s efforts to find a role in China’s One Belt, One Road project, and Turkey’s rocky relations with Germany.

Read the full article in The National Interest.