Venezuela’s Shadow Over MENA: Perceptions and Precedents
MEI Vice President for Policy Ken Pollack joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to explore what the precedent set by the Trump administration’s military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could mean for US policy in the Middle East — particularly in light of ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran. The conversation unpacks the reverberations of Operation Absolute Resolve, Washington’s options for and potential consequences of responding to the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown, regional perceptions of recent US actions and stated objectives, and broader questions around the direction of the Trump administration’s evolving grand strategy.
Khamenei did this to himself. The US can help — without another Middle East quagmire
Last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei effectively greenlit mass killing to save his regime. His message was blunt: blood would be spilled to preserve the system. His security forces followed through, unleashing a level of violence against protesters that even by the Islamic Republic’s grim standards marks a dangerous escalation.
Iran is facing the largest demonstrations since 2022, when the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody ignited a nationwide uprising. This time, the unrest comes as the Islamic Republic is unusually exposed—still reeling from a bruising 12-day war with Israel last summer. What does this moment mean for the regime’s survival? How is this wave of protests different from those that came before? And is there anything the outside world can do to support Iran’s pro-democracy movement without backfiring?
America’s dramatic capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro has set the stage for the conduct of America’s national security strategy in 2026. It has also raised questions.
This bonus episode of Middle East Focus features a conversation from MEI’s Virtual Briefing Series. Director of Communications Zeina Al-Shaib is joined by Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Alan Eyre and Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka to discuss the ongoing protests in Iran. The street demonstrations, sparked by the country’s economic nosedive and at times turning violent, are the largest in three years. As regime arrests and killings of protesters have intensified, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene, his remarks potentially taking on a more vivid significance in light of the American military extraction over the weekend of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, an ally of Tehran. Eyre and Vatanka discuss what these latest developments mean for an Iranian regime already under intense internal and international pressure; the political impact of President Trump’s threats; the limits of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s power to de-escalate the situation at home; and how the instability inside Iran may affect the wider region.
Iran’s political deadlock — and a way out the regime is unlikely to take
On Sunday, December 28, Iran’s latest wave of unrest began not on a university campus or in a symbolic political square, but in the very heart of the country’s economic sphere: the Grand Bazaar commercial center in downtown Tehran. What distinguishes the current moment is not simply the persistence of unrest but its emotional register. Iranian commentary increasingly describes not just hardship but a collapse of expectations of a better future.
Iran’s Axis of Resistance after the 12-day war: Adaptation, restructuring, and reconstitution
Since Israel’s 12-day war against Iran, Tehran and its network of regional proxies and non-state allies, the so-called Axis of Resistance, have entered a phase of strategic dormancy — an outward calm concealing rearmament, financial adaptation, and ideological renewal.
Brian sits down with Robert Malley, a former US official best known for his role as the lead negotiator of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Malley discusses the motivations behind his new book, Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine, and offers his assessment of American perspectives on the war in Gaza. The conversation also explores his personal background as the son of an Egyptian Jewish father and an American Jewish mother—both outspoken on the political left—and how that upbringing shaped his worldview, alongside a career spanning the Clinton, Obama, and Biden administrations.
This backgrounder provides an overview of the Axis of Resistance, a loosely aligned network of armed groups and state actors led and supported by Iran to project its influence and military strength across the Middle East.
How Iraq’s vote will shape the next phase of US-Iran competition
For Iran, Iraq is strategic depth, political sanctuary, and economic lifeline all at once. The results of the November 11 Iraqi elections will decide who in Baghdad controls the budgetary levers, internal security appointments, and committees that could codify, or constrain, Iraq’s Iran-backed militias.
This backgrounder provides an overview of the history of Hamas, its ideology and leadership, military capabilities and goals, the October 7 attack, relevant US government policies and legislation, and the group’s future in Gaza.
The United States plans to submit a resolution on Gaza to the United Nations Security Council by the end of November. Reportedly, the latest draft endorses President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, recognizes the Board of Peace as a “transitional governance administration,” and authorizes the BoP to establish an International Stabilization Force. In a new MEI Policy Memo, Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen breaks down why it matters for the US and the relevant policy considerations.
The United States plans to submit a resolution on Gaza to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) by the end of November. Reportedly, thelatest draftendorses President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, recognizes the Board of Peace (BoP) as a “transitional governance administration,” and authorizes the BoP to establish an International Stabilization Force (ISF). The UN resolution is a first stepto achieving buy-in from potential ISF contributors. In turn, a viable ISF will be one key to moving beyond the cease-fire to securing the 20-point plan’s envisioned Hamas disarmament, further Israeli military withdrawal, and a path to Palestinian governance. The US faces several dilemmas as it seeks to transition from cease-fire to stabilization and beyond.
From Protest to War: How October 7 Reshaped Israeli Democracy
For years, Israeli populist politicians have chipped away at the country’s democratic guardrails. But the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 accelerated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s drive to consolidate power. The kind of societal pushback that once blocked his efforts to expand executive authority is now under severe strain. Israel’s multi-front conflict with Iran, Hamas, and other Iranian proxies has blunted protest movements and sidelined those who once filled the streets in defense of democracy. Defending checks and balances has been eclipsed by wartime priorities.
