The deadly, back-to-back pager/two-way radio attacks against Hezbollah, which killed dozens and wounded thousands of its operatives, undoubtedly signaled a new phase in the intense cross-border exchanges between the group and Israel.
In the corridors of power in Brussels, it is common to hear that the position of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is an impossible job. It may actually become even more difficult for the outgoing Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who is set to succeed the Spanish Josep Borrell as the European Union’s foreign policy chief in the coming weeks.
A reflection on the state of conflict and political change in the Levant by Middle East Institute’s Vice President for International Engagement.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
The Middle East teeters on the precipice of a substantial escalation, threatening to more fully draw in Lebanon, Iran, and perhaps other countries. What happens in the coming days, along with the decisions made by adversaries and allies alike, will determine if that happens.
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing conflict has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators.
As the Middle East becomes more autonomous and empowered domestically, the leaders in the region might consider more synergetic relations with each other and prepare national long-term plans that provide a balanced and integrated approach to social, technological, environmental, economic, and political development and progress.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden, is a crucial chokepoint for global maritime commerce. Despite the strait’s importance, the waters around it have long been plied by smugglers of weapons and other illicit goods. Djibouti today is an important player in trade in the Horn of Africa region, but it also serves as a conduit for Chinese influence, has been linked to malign actors like Iran and the Houthis, and has faced allegations of involvement in various grey and black market activities, including money laundering, illicit finance, oil smuggling, and weapons trafficking.
On July 21, 2024, Iraq inaugurated a new power line connecting Turkey and Iraq to handle Turkish electricity imports. Iraq is operationalizing this new power line with the goal of ensuring a more stable energy future, reshaping its geopolitical relationships, and reducing its reliance on Iran.
After 10 months of Israel’s war on Gaza, the US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents. As a result, Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides. The Middle East is today the closest it has ever been to an all-out multi-front regional war.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
China’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis should be viewed within the broader context of its evolving approach to humanitarian aid and its overall involvement and objectives in the Syrian conflict.
In reaction to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, the Biden administration articulated six main objectives. After nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has repeatedly threatened to spill out into neighboring theaters, the Biden administration’s success toward achieving these goals has mostly declined, not for a lack of effort but rather a reflection of considerable challenges in the environment and major shortcomings in policy conceptualization and implementation.
The conventional wisdom is that Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is yet another bit of window dressing put up by the “deep state” in Tehran, which effectively calls the shots on the most contentious foreign policy files. But it might just be that Pezeshkian’s sudden emergence as president was orchestrated from the outset as a pretext for the Iranian regime to change course.