Research & Commentary Results

There are many signs of a deterioration of relations between Russia and Israel since the start of the war in Gaza, and they have stoked concern about potential flashpoints between the two countries, not least in Syria, where both have a military presence.

Representatives from both sides have been openly bickering at various diplomatic meetings in clashes that have become almost commonplace.

Over the last three weeks, there has been a notable escalation in attacks targeting international coalition bases in northeastern Syria orchestrated by Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq and Syria. Concurrently, there have been reports indicating the establishment of operational centers aimed at coordinating these strikes. These developments appear to be part of an effort to exploit the widespread popular discontent with the United States and Israel, with the strategic aim of expanding and consolidating Iranian influence in Syria.

Hamas’ violent and unexpected Oct. 7 attack on Israel has shaken a fragile regional order in the Middle East. Ankara and Tehran are worried that a stronger U.S. presence in the Middle East is detrimental to their regional interests. The war in Gaza might help close the ranks between Turkey and Iran, yet there are serious limitations to a sustainable alliance between the two countries.

On 7 October, Hamas shocked the world, when thousands of its militants invaded southern Israel, taking control of territory, massacring civilians and kidnapping hundreds.

The attack itself demonstrated an unusual level of complexity, with a first wave seeing drones taking out Israeli reconnaissance equipment and observation posts and cyber attacks creating distractions, opening a path for amassed militant incursions from the air, sea and ground.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

For the better part of a decade, Turkey and the U.S. have been locked in what might be considered an unhappy marriage, marked by bitter misunderstandings and growing distrust. Some optimists had hoped that something of a reset might be possible, but recent events, both in Turkey’s ongoing conflict with the PKK and because of the ripple effects from Israel’s war with Hamas, likely mean that U.S.-Turkish relations, far from improving, will get colder yet in the months to come.

Russia, historically viewed as a major stakeholder and player in the Middle East since the Cold War, is seeing its leverage eroding as the Hamas-Israel war enters its third week, and the Kremlin is absent despite attempts to mediate the conflict. 

On Sept. 26, Jordan dealt a double blow to drug traffickers by intercepting two drones packed with crystal meth from Syria. But this is just the tip of a rapidly growing iceberg. In the past two months alone, Amman has thwarted four more drones, each laden with a deadly cocktail of drugs, arms, and explosives. This surge illuminates a disturbing evolution in the tactics of smuggling networks operating in southern Syria.

After several quiet months on the Turkish-Syrian border, tensions have escalated in recent days. Turkish forces have intensified their attacks against the SDF in northeastern Syria and targeted PKK hideouts along the Turkish-Iraqi border. This escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of the suicide blast in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, on Oct. 1 that targeted the Interior Ministry.

Despite the great magnitude of the disaster that has befallen Syria over the past 12 years, Syrians have not wavered in their perseverance and belief in their right to a free and dignified life. In the city of Suwayda in the south, for the seventh consecutive week now, peaceful popular demonstrations continue with diverse participation from all segments of the Syrian people.

فمن مدينة السويداء في الجنوب ، وللأسبوع السابع على التوالي، تستمر مظاهراتها الشعبية السلمية وبمشاركة متنوعة لكل أطياف الشعب السوري ممن تمكن من الوصول لساحاتها، وتتجاوب معها بعض من المدن السورية، معيدة احياء مسيرة الثورة السورية التي انطلقت في أذار 2011.

July 16, 2023, was a dark day for the ancient city of Damascus. A fire raged through the historic Sarouja neighborhood, reducing a number of heritage homes to ashes. Two months later, in September 2023, a residential building in the Syrian capital’s Malki neighborhood partially collapsed as a result of unauthorized excavation for a basement. While these events might not seem connected, they underscore an overarching issue: the vulnerability of Damascus properties in the face of natural and man-made crises, exacerbated by corruption, greed, and failed and vicious state policies.

There is an urgent need for a Global Humanitarian Coalition to Defeat ISIS to conduct human rights-centered action and build upon hard-fought military gains in the campaign against ISIS. Repatriation of all third-country nationals in the squalid detention camps and prisons in northeast Syria must be the first joint task in order to ease the burden of the local administration and to accomplish long-sought security, justice, and stabilization goals.

This report provides an interim assessment of the Biden administration’s overall Middle East strategy and examines the strategic opportunities and risks for U.S. policy in the broader region.

As the humanitarian, political, and economic challenges in Syria are occurring simultaneously with increasingly hot and dry summers, conflict- and climate-related factors have compounded, resulting in the emergence of a so-called “triple water crisis.”