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No Winners in Yemen
  • Analysis
  • No Winners in Yemen

    Hadi flip-flopped again. On Thursday, September 10, Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi announced that the government would meet with the Houthi rebels directly and without any conditions at the UN-sponsored negotiating table. As the military buildup for the assault on Sana reaches its final stages, Hadi’s announcement came with a sense of relief that Sana, having endured six months of bombardment from the Saudi Air Force, would be spared a ground assault. But two days later, Hadi reversed and

    September 28, 2015

    Gaza: A Cautionary Refugee Lesson
  • Analysis
  • Gaza: A Cautionary Refugee Lesson

    While the international community focuses on the latest refugee crisis fomented by the cascading calamities now engulfing the Middle East, Gaza—home to the region’s first permanent refugees—offers a cautionary lesson about the costs of man-made hardship and instability.
     
    The UN recently reported that the infant mortality rate in the Gaza Strip has increased for the first time since Israel occupied the area in June 1967, in part because of the draconian restrictions on Gaza trade imposed by Israel and Egypt during the last decade.

    September 22, 2015

    The Saudis and Iran’s Moderates
  • Analysis
  • The Saudis and Iran’s Moderates

    Looking to capitalize on the momentum from the July 14 nuclear deal, the moderate government of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is now seeking ways to reduce tensions with its regional rivals, particularly Saudi Arabia. This is no small task. Not only must Rouhani convince his domestic critics that mending ties with their arch rival is in Iran’s interest, but he must also get a read on Riyadh’s new leader, King Salman, and the ruling elite.

    The Multinational Force of Observers and the Sinai Storm
  • Analysis
  • The Multinational Force of Observers and the Sinai Storm

    The 1,667-strong contingent of U.S. and international forces that make up the Multinational Force of Observers (MFO) in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula is in a tough spot. The ongoing failure of the Egyptian government’s war against the ISIS-led rebellion there has shredded the MFO’s mandate to monitor Egyptian and Israeli adherence to their peace treaty. Sinai’s descent into anarchy also puts outnumbered and outgunned U.S. troops in the only location other than Iraq that confronts ISIS in an active theater of war.

    August 27, 2015

    The Post-Abbas Palestinian National Struggle
  • Analysis
  • The Post-Abbas Palestinian National Struggle

    In the coming months, we can expect that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will no longer occupy the executive leadership position in the muqata, the interim Palestinian government headquarters in Ramallah. His age and his repeated insistence that he does not plan to run in new elections, as well as his most recent comments about his willingness to resign, point to this fact.

    August 10, 2015

    Why the Iran Deal is Good for Israel
  • Analysis
  • Why the Iran Deal is Good for Israel

    Read the full op-ed on CNN.com.

    Few states face the kind of complex, sustained security challenges that Israel does.

    Israel has not enjoyed one day of peace with its neighbors since its independence in 1948. Many Arab and Muslim states have maintained an economic and political boycott against Israel for decades.

    August 5, 2015

    Another Palestinian Uprising?
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Another Palestinian Uprising?

    Predictions of a new Palestinian intifada in the occupied territories tend to accompany every breakdown in the diplomatic process, announcement of a new colonial expansion project, and Israeli violence against Palestinian life—such as the recent horrific murder of Palestinian infant Ali Dawabsheh by settler terrorists who set fire to his West Bank family home.

    August 5, 2015

    Education: The Key to Women’s Empowerment in Saudi Arabia?
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Education: The Key to Women’s Empowerment in Saudi Arabia?

    In recent news from Saudi Arabia: religious police filmed berating a fully veiled woman for not wearing gloves; a cleric’s fatwa against women watching football to prevent them from staring at men’s thighs; and a woman sentenced to 70 lashes for insulting her husband on WhatsApp.[1] At the same time, the Saudi education ministry released statistics showing that women constitute almost 52 percent of university graduates inside the kingdom, while more than 35,000 female Saudis studied abroad in 2014.

    July 30, 2015

    Improved Egypt-Israel Relations through Sinai Crisis: Will They Last?
  • Analysis
  • Improved Egypt-Israel Relations through Sinai Crisis: Will They Last?

    Egyptian diplomats rarely have a good word to say about U.S. policies these days. In contrast, they are enthusiastic in their praise of the close relations between Cairo and Jerusalem—centered on counterterror security and intelligence cooperation in Sinai—and effusive in their acknowledgement of Israel’s response to the bloody insurgency there, led by Egypt’s ISIS affiliate in the “Sinai Province,” Ansar Beit al-Maqdis.

    “Relations with Israel are great,” observed an Egyptian official recently.[1]

    July 24, 2015

    The Syrian Druze at a Crossroads
  • Analysis
  • The Syrian Druze at a Crossroads

    In the last few weeks, the Syrian Druze have been a focal point in significant fighting on the ground. If their role in the fighting continues, or even if it changes, the Druze will likely have a profound impact on the trajectory of the Syrian conflict.

    July 13, 2015

    Saudi Arabia's Quagmire
  • Analysis
  • Saudi Arabia's Quagmire

    Read the full article on LobeLog.

    Three months after Saudi Arabia rounded up a few allies and began an intensive bombing campaign against the rebels known as Houthis across the border in Yemen, a conventional wisdom has developed. “It has not worked,” as The New York Times put it in a front-page article, and it probably can’t work because the strategic goals are too murky, the factions are too entrenched, the rivalries are too intense, and the conflict is too complicated to be resolved by a simplistic solution.

    July 1, 2015

    The Shi‘a Question in Saudi Arabia
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • The Shi‘a Question in Saudi Arabia

    Saudi Arabia is a Sunni-majority state and home to a significant Shi‘i minority, most of whom live in the Eastern Province. The Shi‘a there are mainly of the Twelver sect, which is also the major Shi‘i sect in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The Eastern Province Twelvers are not the only Shi‘a in Saudi Arabia—there are sizable communities of Twelvers in Medina and Isma‘ilis in Najran—but it is they who sit at the center of the Shi‘i political movement in the kingdom.

    June 26, 2015

    Tensions in the Golan
  • Analysis
  • Tensions in the Golan

    On June 22, members of the Druse minority in the Israeli town of Hurfeish threw rocks at an ambulance believed to be transporting wounded Syrian Jabhat al-Nusra rebels to medical care in Israel. The following day, a similar incident in the occupied Golan Heights resulted in the killing of one wounded rebel, also of Nusra.

    June 24, 2015

    A Tiny But Positive Step in the Middle East
  • Analysis
  • A Tiny But Positive Step in the Middle East

    Read full article at LobeLog.

    In the unending panorama of violence that is today’s Middle East, one hopeful note emerged earlier this month with a low-key announcement from Saudi Arabia that drew scant attention from the American news media.

    King Salman appointed a military officer, Gen. Thamer al-Sabhan, to be the kingdom’s first resident ambassador in Baghdad since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.

    June 15, 2015