After Hezbollah’s retaliation, no broader war for now, but the conflict drags on
On Aug. 25, Hezbollah retaliated for Israel’s assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr on July 30, launching 340 rockets and tens of drones from southern Lebanon and the eastern Beka’a region. Hezbollah’s retaliation started shortly after Israel undertook what it called a “preemptive strike,” in which 100 fighter jets targeted Hezbollah military sites, including rocket launching platforms, to thwart a larger attack that, according to Israeli officials, involved up to 6,000 rockets.
Israel and the Axis of Resistance in the wake of the Gaza war
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing conflict has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators.
Nato must wake up to Russia’s nuclear power deal with Turkey
Ask Nato’s secretary-general to name the decision of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that irks him the most and he’d probably say purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile defence system. But Nato has an even bigger problem when it comes to Turkey-Russia ties: the Akkuyu nuclear power plant.
As the Middle East becomes more autonomous and empowered domestically, the leaders in the region might consider more synergetic relations with each other and prepare national long-term plans that provide a balanced and integrated approach to social, technological, environmental, economic, and political development and progress.
Powering up: Turkey-Iraq transmission line is part of a broader strategic shift
On July 21, 2024, Iraq inaugurated a new power line connecting Turkey and Iraq to handle Turkish electricity imports. Iraq is operationalizing this new power line with the goal of ensuring a more stable energy future, reshaping its geopolitical relationships, and reducing its reliance on Iran.
Monday Briefing: The Middle East is the closest it has ever been to an all-out war
After 10 months of Israel’s war on Gaza, the US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents. As a result, Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides. The Middle East is today the closest it has ever been to an all-out multi-front regional war.
The impact of Turkish-Syrian normalization on the SDF
As speculation continues about a possible Turkish-Syrian normalization, what might such a process mean for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a close US ally? In a new piece for MEI, Amer al-Ahmed lays out three possible scenarios for the future of the SDF amid normalization.
Special Briefing: The regional impact of Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination
In a new special briefing, scholars from across MEI weigh in with their thoughts on the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the potential regional impact.
Israeli Strikes and the Risk of Regional Escalation
This week’s episode looks at the dramatic regional developments of the past 24 hours, including the Israeli strike on a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The strikes mark a significant escalation, and are expected to provoke retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah that could potentially ignite a wider regional conflict.
The Limits of Biden’s Middle East Diplomacy: An Assessment of US Policy, April-July 2024
In reaction to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, the Biden administration articulated six main objectives. After nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has repeatedly threatened to spill out into neighboring theaters, the Biden administration’s success toward achieving these goals has mostly declined, not for a lack of effort but rather a reflection of considerable challenges in the environment and major shortcomings in policy conceptualization and implementation.
Turkey is not “lost,” but it is time for other NATO allies to more strongly reengage
Turkey’s loyalty to the Alliance is frequently questioned, including accusations of fence-sitting, especially when it comes to Russia. To ask, “Who lost Turkey?” is to misread the situation. Turkey is increasingly, albeit carefully, moving away from the Kremlin.
Key takeaways for NATO and the Middle East from the Washington Summit Declaration
At the Washington Summit, NATO member states mostly focused on efforts to counter Russia and to support Ukraine. However, the 2024 summit communiqué also addresses non-Euro-Atlantic risks and opportunities, based on the idea that “conflict, fragility and instability” elsewhere directly affects NATO security.
