Research & Commentary Results

The March 31st local elections in Turkey were a breath of fresh air for those long resigned to the fact that the ballot box doesn’t matter anymore and that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was invincible. To the surprise of many, the opposition captured all of Turkey’s major cities, but the decision by the Supreme Election Council on May 6th to nullify the results of the Istanbul mayoral election and call for a new vote quickly changed the mood. The election is now set to be rerun on June 23rd.

At the heart of the conflict in Iraq has been a clash of visions over the identity and ownership of the Iraqi state. The post-2003 conflict was, in effect, a violent renegotiation of both the political compact in place since the 1960s and of the balance of power among regional and international players.

Building up Turkey’s defense industry has long been a priority for the government, and it has made considerable progress. Turkey is now the world’s 14th largest defense exporter. Despite its success to date, the industry is facing growing pains, and challenges like brain drain, a currency crisis, dependence on foreign suppliers, and regional political disputes could hamper growth going forward.

A “black hole” of information, East Ghouta is a dark example of the reimposition of the Assad regime’s rule over a community once controlled by the opposition. This paper, produced in association with ETANA Syria, shines a light on what the regime’s military rule looks like on the ground and the resulting human rights violations against the population, and details the scale of the Iranian presence in key strategic locations around Damascus.

Too many of the world’s economies are still struggling. Who right now can help them and in the process most help itself? We suggest it’s the Middle East, but only once the region takes on a long overdue leadership role in the global economy’s financial regulatory and development bodies.

Much analysis of the geopolitical ramifications of President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster last month has focused on how Sudan fits into the larger struggle between the Middle East’s Sunni powers, but Iran is also part of the equation as well. Saudi and Emirati leaders have a number of objectives in Sudan and preventing the Islamic Republic from re-establishing a foothold in Africa is one of them. Indeed, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are determined to ensure that Khartoum remains firmly in the anti-Iranian camp, following its realignment between 2014 and early 2016.

The Trump administration’s decision on April 22 to stop waiving sanctions on eight countries that purchase Iranian crude sent oil prices to their highest levels in six months and resulted in defiance and hand-wringing from the three biggest buyers. Meanwhile, Iran said it would retaliate by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would make it difficult for other Persian Gulf countries to get their crude to market.

Eight years on, the Syrian civil war is finally winding down. The government of Bashar al-Assad has largely won, but the cost has been steep. The economy is shattered, there are more than 5 million Syrian refugees abroad, and the government lacks the resources to rebuild. The country remains divided into three zones, each in the hands of a different group and supported by foreign forces. The Syrian government will not accept partition and is ultimately likely to reassert its control in the other two zones.

Turkey, which lies at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, has emerged in recent years as an important geopolitical actor not just within the surrounding region but in the global arena as well. Turkey’s foreign and economic policy horizons today extend to the Far East. These essays explore the development of cultural, political, and economic links between Turkey and Asia.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the current uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, General Hifter’s effort to take Tripoli, the hirak protest movement in Algeria, the strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S., and cracks in the coalition of President Hadi in Yemen.

New Arab uprisings echo earlier revolts

Paul Salem
President

This article was published by the Caspian Policy Center.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Emadeddin Badi, Yousef Munayyer, Randa Slim, and Shahrokh Fardoust provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist group, the battle for control of Tripoli in Libya, the impact of Israel’s elections on the Palestinian crisis, Iraqi PM Abdul-Mahdi’s first official visit to Iran, and the spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF in DC.

According to SIPRI’s recently published annual report, Russia’s share of global arms exports shrank by around one-fifth over the last decade, falling from 27 percent to 21 percent, while the U.S. share increased from 30 percent to 36 percent, widening the gap between the two major arms exporters. As Russia looks to reverse this decline, it is focusing on the Middle East, the world’s second-largest and fastest-growing arms market, as a way to boost its exports.

As Saudi Arabia explores options for diversifying the economy beyond petroleum export, family-friendly tourism may be the Kingdom’s new frontier.

25 years ago, Turkish Islamists’ march to power began in the country’s capital, Ankara, and its largest city, Istanbul, when the ruling Justice and Development Party’s predecessor, the Welfare Party, captured the two municipalities. The loss of these cities in Sunday’s local elections could well mark the beginning of their descent.