For nearly half a century, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Syria under the Assads exploited Lebanon’s sectarian tensions and weak central government to advance their own agendas, without reference and at great cost to the interests of the Lebanese population. Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hizballah, have taken the life-and-death decisions of war and peace away from the Lebanese state and people, routinely dragging Lebanon into internal conflict as well as deadly hostilities with Israel. This pattern resurfaced last month, following the killing of Ali Khamenei.
Clearly, despite the severe degradation of Hizballah’s capabilities by the Israel Defense Forces in 2024, the terms of the cease-fire that year, as well as the commitment of Lebanon’s current leaders to restore state sovereignty and disarm the group, Iran continued to sustain its Lebanese proxy’s ability to threaten Israel. With sustained statecraft, however, the American-Israeli campaign against Iran and the shifting balance of power in the Middle East could create an opportunity to build a more enduring foundation to not only end Tehran’s influence in Lebanon but also remove the threats it poses to Lebanese sovereignty and the security of both Lebanon and Israel.
Speakers
Ambassador David Hale is a Career Ambassador and Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Ambassador Hale previously served as US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs; US Ambassador to Pakistan, Lebanon, and Jordan; and Special Envoy for Middle East Peace. He is the author of American Diplomacy Toward Lebanon: Lessons in Foreign Policy and the Middle East, published by Bloomsbury/I.B. Tauris in February 2024.
Dr. Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and director of its Jeanette and Eli Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. Dr. Levitt previously served as deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S. Department of the Treasury and as a counterterrorism intelligence analyst at the Federal Bureau of Investigation. He is the host of the podcast series, Breaking Hezbollah’s Golden Rule, and he created and maintains interactive maps of Hizballah’s international activities and Iran’s external operations.
Mr. Aram Nerguizian Mr. Aram Nerguizian is the Chief Executive Officer of The Mortons Group and Chief Research Officer at Foxglove Consulting. For more than 15 years, Nerguizian served as Senior Fellow with the Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Mr. Nerguizian is a leading authority on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), the author of numerous reports on the LAF and Hizballah, as well as an advisor on civil-military leadership and bilateral and multilateral efforts to sustain and develop national security institutions in post-conflict and divided societies.
Dr. Kenneth M. Pollack (Moderator) is Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute. Dr. Pollack began his career as a Persian Gulf military analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and served twice on the National Security Council, first as Director for Near East and South Asian Affairs and then as Director for Persian Gulf Affairs.
