Defense and Security, Democracy and Human Rights, Economics, Energy, Governance, Reform, and State Capacity, Great Powers in the Middle East, Nuclear Proliferation, Terrorism, US Policy in the Middle East, Iran
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Alex Vatanka is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. He specializes in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran. He was formerly a Senior Analyst at Jane’s Information Group in London. Alex is also a Senior Fellow in Middle East Studies at the US Air Force Special Operations School (USAFSOS) at Hurlburt Field and teaches as an Adjunct Professor at DISAS at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. He has testified before the US Congress and lectured widely for both governmental and commercial audiences, including the US Departments of State and Defense, US intelligence agencies, and a list of international corporations.
Born in Tehran, he holds a BA in Political Science (Sheffield University, UK), and an MA in International Relations (Essex University, UK), and is fluent in Farsi and Danish. He is the author of two books: The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy and Political Rivalry Since 1979 (2021) and Iran and Pakistan: Security, Diplomacy, and American Influence (2015).
He has also written chapters for a number of books, including Authoritarianism Goes Global (2016); Handbook on Contemporary Pakistan (2017); Russia in the Middle East (2018), Winning the Battle, Losing the War: Addressing the Drivers Fueling Armed Non-state Actors and Extremist Groups (2020); Global, Regional and Local Dynamics in the Yemen Crisis (2020); Routledge Handbook of Counterterrorism and Irregular Warfare Operations (2021); and Understanding New Proxy Wars (2022). He is presently working on his third book, Iran’s Arab Strategy: Defending the Homeland or Exporting Khomeinism?
Education
B.A. in Political Science at Sheffield University; M.A. in International Relations at Essex University
Languages
Farsi, Danish
Countries of Expertise
Iran
Issues of Expertise
Iran domestic and foreign affairs, Iranian military and security forces, Iran-US relations, Political Islam in Middle East
Website
Vatanka.com
Books
Book chapters
Select articles
BBC Persian, an important independent source of news for Iranians inside Iran where media freedoms are restricted, published an article on the sensitive subject of Tehran’s endgame in the Syrian war.
According to the speaker of the Iranian parliament (Majlis), Ali Larijani, 45 parliamentarians are insisting that President Hassan Rouhani look into the alleged wrongdoings of his younger brother, Hossein Fereidun.
As the Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven prepares for his February 11-12 visit to Tehran he is facing pushback from Iranians that are urging Sweden not to overlook human rights violations while pursuing business interests in that country. A number of open letters have been published by Iranian activists about dire conditions for political prisoners in Iran. It will remain to be seen if Lofven will push the issue while in Tehran.
Abbas Akhundi, one of the more controversial ministers in the government of President Hassan Rouhani, has once again come under attack for his performance.
One Iranian opposition-leaning site, Kaleme, has reported that the recently deceased Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani had strongly urged Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to release Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi from house arrest. “These are elderly people and if anything happens to them [while under house arrest] then the regime is responsible,” Rafsanjani is quoted to have said to Khamenei.
The once powerful Iranian reformist parties are today on the political margins. While they continue to enjoy significant support from voters at election times – which was last evident in the 2016 parliamentary elections when reformists secured about 41% of the vote – the public no longer seems to believe reformists can instill serious reform in Iran. In particular, the Iranian youth of today, which used to be the bedrock of support for reformists, is noticeably disillusioned with the political process in the country.
Fars News, an outlet that is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), reported that ethnic Chechen forces from Russia are now acting as police units in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The outlet reported that Chechens had also from December 2016 been deployed “to serve in the military police to protect Russia’s Khmeimim air base in Syria.”
Tehran’s fears of losing out influence during the ongoing peace talks on Syria in Astana were evident even in the makeup of the Iranian delegation. According to Iranian sources, Tehran had been compelled to dispatch a top military figure with extensive experience in Syria in order not to be eclipsed by Russian and Turkish militaries.
In an interview with an Arab television station, the former Iranian foreign minister and the present head
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S.-Middle East relations in the new Trump administration, the view of Trump’s inauguration from Tehran, the Gulf’s ‘wait and see’ approach to the new administration, and Russia’s public position on Syria talks at the outset of talks in Astana.
There is still plenty of anger among the Iranian population about the January 19 fire and collapse of a historic high-rise building in downtown Tehran. The number of casualties is still unknown as the emergency services are still finding bodies under the rubble.
Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s atomic agency, warned President Donald Trump that if he tears the 2015 nuclear agreement apart Iran will “increase its nuclear activities at a more advanced level.” Salehi’s remarks were in reaction to Trump’s phone conversation with the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.
On January 23, Washington quickly rejected news that US forces had carried out joint air attacks with Russia against Islamic State targets in Syria.
The reaction in Tehran to Trump arriving in the White House has been cautious, but composed. The two dominant factions inside the Iranian regime, the moderates and the hardliners, appear to agree on the question of Iran’s posture toward the Trump presidency. Early signs of this emerging consensus points to an Iran that will have to be less provocative in its actions in the Middle East in order to avoid American reprisals. Even the most hawkish voices in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps have warned about “sensitive days ahead between Iran and American generals.”
The collapse of a 53-year landmark building in downtown Tehran on January 19 is likely to lead very quickly to a war of words among Iranian officials about culpability. The incident, which has left dozens of firefighters dead, follows a string of infrastructure-related disasters in the Iranian capital in recent months.
