Fatima Sadiqi

The election of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is a political breakthrough in Lebanon and a harbinger of what could happen in a country long dismissed as unsalvageable. Beirut’s new leadership reflects the aspiration of a majority of the Lebanese people to live in a functioning state free from the dual drivers of its failure: political violence and pervasive corruption. Those leaders must now deliver on their commitment to establish a state committed and accountable to its people and rise to meet the responsibility that comes with holding the promise of a nation’s future.

The opening act of US President Donald Trump’s second administration had very little to do with Middle East policy issues. It is too soon to predict what approach Trump might take on that front or even how much he will prioritize the region relative to the other issues on his second term agenda. His administration has sent some mixed and inconsistent signals on staffing and policy moves that don’t provide enough of a clear overall sense of the big picture on the Middle East but do offer some preview of what might be to come on three key fronts.

It is becoming apparent that negotiations between the new leadership in Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) face significant obstacles due to disagreements over military structure and administrative demands. These issues reflect the difficulty of reaching a mutual understanding between the two parties. As these challenges persist, there is growing talk of a potential military escalation in eastern Syria, amid residents’ fears and international mediation efforts to contain the crisis and achieve progress in the negotiations.

Normalizing regular contacts and building relationships with the Taliban leadership can offer a more effective way to hold the Islamic Emirate to account for its actions. It also gives greater promise of realizing American hopes for an Afghanistan inhospitable to global terrorists and more respectful of the human rights of its citizens.

Syria’s first post-Assad protests broke out on Dec. 25 after a video claiming to show the destruction of an Alawite shrine spread rapidly across Facebook. The video was quickly debunked as several weeks old, the shrine only partially damaged, and the damage occurring during the capture of Aleppo city rather than in an act of sectarian vandalism. But those first hours were enough to stir up the widespread fears lingering just below the surface among Syria’s Alawite minority, bringing many Alawites (as well as Sunnis) to the streets to denounce sectarianism.

The cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas announced on Jan. 15 took more than a year to reach and almost certainly will take much longer to fully realize than the four-plus months outlined in the framework. Like many things in life, this agreement was hard to build and will be easy to tear down. Indeed, the deal has already run into issues even before it is set to take effect on Jan. 19, with a dispute within the Israeli cabinet delaying a vote on it to Jan. 17. 

With a nearly unanimous 99 out of 128 votes, the Lebanese parliament elected the head of the army, Gen. Joseph Aoun, as Lebanon’s 14th president on Jan. 9. In a strong inaugural speech Aoun laid out an ambitious agenda premised on regaining the Lebanese state’s monopoly of the use of force, securing the country’s borders and ports, strengthening the rule of law, and encouraging a raft of long-overdue reforms.

A very different Middle East will greet President-elect Trump this month compared to the region he experienced during his first term. However, there are opportunities to advance American interests for a more stable and less conflictual Middle East, which might not require the kind of intense US commitment we have seen over the last quarter-century.

As we look to maintain our coverage of the fast-moving changes and events in the region in 2025, here are some of the most popular articles, reports, and briefs from 2024.

More than a year has passed since the horrific attacks that took the lives of 1,200 innocent Israeli citizens on Oct. 7, 2023, a devasting day that led to many more devasting days in Gaza, where tens of thousands of innocent people have died and countless more have experienced suffering on an industrial scale. All hopes that the war might soon wind down are fading, as the conflict has expanded regionally and internationally and attention has been diverted to a hot cease-fire in Lebanon and the dramatic events unfolding in Syria. Saudi Arabia can help support a credible path to peace.

Middle East Focus Presents: ‘Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis.

A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today – hosted by MEI’s Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy, Brian Katulis.

Norman T. Roule is a member of MEI’s Iran Program Advisory Council. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, where his service included roles as Division Chief and Chief of Station at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations. He joins Brian to discuss the state of an ideologically contested Middle East, as well as the opportunities and challenges following the fall of the Assad regime.

Under former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the Syrian security sector kept meticulous records of their crimes. The international community must now step up to help Syria’s new authorities secure and protect the documents, provide information to the loved ones of those who suffered in Assad’s prisons, and pursue justice.

The war in Gaza continues as the Biden administration nears its end, leaving President-elect Donald Trump with a vastly different Middle East from the one he inherited in his first term. Khaled Elgindy, Director of the Palestine & Palestinian-Israeli Affairs program at MEI, is joined by Tamara Kharroub and Daniel Levy to discuss Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza, the fragile cease-fire talks, and the potential shifts in US policy with Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

On Dec. 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell. This is a fact, but it woefully understates the enormity, speed, and consequences of what has transpired. The brutal dictatorship that ruled Syria for more than 50 years disintegrated in fewer than 10 days. Celebrations erupted across public squares, thousands of Syrian refugees lined up at the borders of Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon eager to return, and the release of political prisoners fueled hope for a new era after decades of despotism and conflict. However, concerns about Syria’s political future and territorial integrity quickly surfaced.