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Giorgio Cafiero

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Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC. His research interests include geopolitical and security trends in the Arabian Peninsula and the broader Middle East. Mr. Cafiero is a regular contributor to several publications including Al Monitor, The National Interest, and LobeLog. From 2014-2015, he was an analyst at Kroll, an investigative due diligence consultancy. He received an M.A. in International Relations from the University of San Diego.

The Latest from Giorgio Cafiero

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Saudi-Turkey Maintaining Warm Relations despite Qatar Crisis
  • Analysis
  • Saudi-Turkey Maintaining Warm Relations despite Qatar Crisis

    Qatar is Turkey’s closest ally in the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) and, since 2011, Ankara has become Doha’s most important regional ally. From Syria to Libya, the Qataris and Turks have worked in tandem to pursue shared interests, chiefly via support for Islamist non-state actors. More than four months into the G.C.C. crisis, Ankara has played a pivotal role in assisting Qatar weather the blockade imposed by a quartet of Arab countries—Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.).

    November 8, 2017

    Yemen’s Humanitarian Disaster: Halting the Famine Threat
  • Analysis
  • Yemen’s Humanitarian Disaster: Halting the Famine Threat

    Summary

    Only several months after the Saudi-led military coalition waged its ongoing campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in March 2015, the United Nations began issuing warnings about famine. Today, millions of Yemenis are on the brink of famine, with about half a million suffering from a cholera outbreak. This paper analyzes the causes of Yemen’s humanitarian catastrophe and offers the Trump administration recommendations for helping the impoverished Arab state avoid a famine.

    October 25, 2017

    Yemen War and Qatar Crisis Challenge Oman’s Neutrality
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Yemen War and Qatar Crisis Challenge Oman’s Neutrality

    Living on the periphery of the tumultuous Middle East, Omanis do not take their security for granted. Oman has been free of violent unrest since the Sultanate crushed the Dhofar Rebellion in 1976. Yet Oman is situated in a dangerous neighborhood, and the Arab Gulf country is not immune to transregional threats.

    July 6, 2017

    Kuwait, Oman, and the Qatar Crisis
  • Analysis
  • Kuwait, Oman, and the Qatar Crisis

    The ongoing Qatar crisis poses a major dilemma for Kuwait and Oman. Consistent with their “neutral” foreign policies, these two Arab Gulf states have maintained ties with Doha and seek to resolve the gravest internal Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) row since the organization’s establishment in 1981. Officials in Kuwait City and Muscat fear that failure to settle the Qatar crisis will break up the council, which would directly undermine vital Kuwaiti and Omani national interests given the potential for such a scenario to dramatically exacerbate regional geopolitical instability.

    June 22, 2017

    Bahrain-Malaysia Relations Set to Reach New Heights
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Bahrain-Malaysia Relations Set to Reach New Heights

    On May 3, 2017, King Hamad Bin Eisa Al Khalifa concluded a four-day trip to Malaysia, the first visit by a Bahraini monarch since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1974 and the initial leg of a tour that also included stops in Brunei and Thailand. This essay takes a brief look at the development of economic ties between Bahrain and Malaysia in recent years, and considers the prospects for their continued growth in light of the outcome of King Hamad’s visit.

    May 23, 2017

    Geopolitics Drive Russia and the U.A.E. Closer
  • Analysis
  • Geopolitics Drive Russia and the U.A.E. Closer

    Russia and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) are developing a unique bilateral relationship. The latest manifestation of growing ties occurred at the biennial International Defense Exhibition & Conference (IDEX) in February when Russia and the U.A.E. announced a deal to co-produce a fifth-generation jet fighter in the Emirates. Although Moscow and Abu Dhabi have been cooperating on a range of economic and security issues for years, this was an unprecedented move.

    April 4, 2017

    China-Turkey Relations Grow Despite Differences over Uighurs
  • Analysis
  • China-Turkey Relations Grow Despite Differences over Uighurs

    Since the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016, Turkey has been looking east for new partners to decrease Ankara’s dependence on traditional Western allies. The election of Donald Trump has contributed to the further estrangement of Turkey’s relationship with its traditional NATO allies, leaving Ankara less comfortable remaining so reliant on Washington for regional security matters.

    March 15, 2017

    Kuwait’s Pragmatic Islamists
  • Analysis
  • Kuwait’s Pragmatic Islamists

    After boycotting parliamentary elections in 2012 and 2013, the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood’s political wing, Hadas, ran their candidates in last year’s snap election. Four out of five of the party’s candidates won, bringing Hadas back into Kuwait’s 50-member National Assembly.

    February 8, 2017

    Oman Diversifies Allies with Closer India Ties
  • Analysis
  • Oman Diversifies Allies with Closer India Ties

    Cinzia Miotto contributed to this article.

    In the face of economic challenges and geopolitical shifts, Oman is investing in its strategic partnership with India to diversify Muscat’s web of international allies. This relationship—which dates back to the Indus Valley Civilization when the Arabian Sea’s monsoon winds began facilitating 5,000 years of maritime trade between the two countries—has matured substantially in recent years.[1]

    October 5, 2016

    G.C.C., Iran Look to Sea Trade to Reduce Dependence on Oil
  • Analysis
  • G.C.C., Iran Look to Sea Trade to Reduce Dependence on Oil

    Continuing low oil prices have prompted Persian Gulf states to diversify their heavily petro-dependent economies. This issue is forcing the oil-rich states to invest and expand their potential as international trade hubs as a pathway away from the time bomb of single commodity exports. As many Gulf states have outlined in economic plans, as well as developed on the ground, maritime trade is an increasingly essential link connecting the Middle East to the global economy.

    August 24, 2016

    Turkey and Qatar’s Burgeoning Strategic Alliance
  • Analysis
  • Turkey and Qatar’s Burgeoning Strategic Alliance

    Between the rise to power of the Justice and Development Party (A.K.P.) in the early 2000s and the eruption of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbors” approach to foreign policy seemed commendable. Today, however, Ankara’s foreign policy is perhaps best described as “zero neighbors without problems.” In response to the Arab uprisings of 2011, Ankara’s projection of primarily soft power has evolved into the embrace of hard power—most notably in Iraq and Syria.

    June 8, 2016

    Can Oman’s Stability Outlive Sultan Qaboos?
  • Analysis
  • Can Oman’s Stability Outlive Sultan Qaboos?

    Introduction

    As political and humanitarian crises destabilize many Arab states, the Sultanate of Oman is a beacon of tranquility in a tumultuous region. The nation’s unique cohesion and stability is largely attributable to the legitimacy of Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Busaidi, the longest serving Arab ruler still in power. Since ascending to the throne in 1970, Qaboos has transformed Oman from an impoverished state into a wealthy country with first-world infrastructure, a vibrant tourism industry and a military alliance with the United States and Britain.

    April 27, 2016

    A Look at Oman and South Korea’s Strategic Partnership
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • A Look at Oman and South Korea’s Strategic Partnership

    Since Oman and South Korea established official diplomatic ties in 1974, trade has largely defined the Muscat-Seoul relationship. Oman’s oil and liquefied natural gas (L.N.G.) and South Korea’s automobiles, electronics, and large vessels have dominated bilateral trade. Yet as Seoul stakes out increasingly vital national interests in the volatile Middle East, a host of geopolitical and security trends will more meaningfully influence the future of Omani-Korean relations.

    March 23, 2016

    Regional Turmoil Threatens Kuwait’s Calm
  • Analysis
  • Regional Turmoil Threatens Kuwait’s Calm

    The intensifying rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is raising sectarian temperatures in some smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) states. Kuwait’s fractious parliament has seen growing tension and even physical confrontation between its Sunni and Shiite MPs in response to regional developments. Growing tension in Kuwait is also evident in the national media and online forums.

    March 17, 2016