Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where she focuses on Turkish politics, US-Turkey relations and regional dynamics in the Middle East.
A frequent commentator, Dr. Tol has written extensively on Turkish domestic and foreign policy for publications such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, Foreign Policy, and TheFinancial Times. Her articles include “Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy” in Foreign Affairs (March 2025), “The Indispensable Erdogan” in The New York Times and “Erdogan Sees Nothing But Opportunity in Syria” in TheFinancial Times (December 2024).
This Opinion first appeared in The National on February 10, 2012
Despite his popularity at home and abroad, it’s not all roses for Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Far from having zero problems with neighbors, Turkey these days is virtually surrounded by neighbors with problems – Greece’s imploding economy, Syria’s civil war, Iraq’s tenuous stability and Iran’s troublesome nuclear program.
This Opinion piece first appeared in Frontline’s Tehran Bureau on January 19, 2012.
After months of frosty relations, Iran and Turkey are talking again. The ostensible reason for Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s visit to Tehran two weeks ago was to try to jump start stalled nuclear talks with the so-called P5+1 group of nations. Davutoglu conveyed to Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili the European Union’s invitation to resume the talks in Turkey that were suspended a year ago for lack of progress.
When President Obama met with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday, the two discussed cooperation on Syria, counter-terrorism and supporting the Arab spring. But a central theme of the talks, and what most concerns the U.S. at the moment, is a sharply deteriorating Turkish relationship with Israel that the U.S. hopes to reverse. Conversely, this deterioration was the source of much acclaim when Erdogan visited Arab spring countries last week.
The release of last week’s UN Palmer Report, assessing Israel’s attack on the Mavi Marmara and five other ships carrying aid to Gaza, sparked outrage in Turkey. Many criticized the report’s alleged bias, and claimed it failed to provide a credible legal analysis of the Mavi Marmara incident in which nine Turkish citizens were shot to death by Israeli commandos, some at close range and from behind.
F. Stephen Larrabee, Distinguished Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation, and Gonul Tol, Executive Director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies, highlight the importance of drafting a new civilian constitution to solve Turkey’s Kurdish issue.
Turkey as an Alternative Democratization Model for the Middle East
The popular uprisings against authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan and Egypt herald the beginning of a new political era in the Middle East. At the center of this new political order is a generation of young Arabs, educated, highly marginalized, and numerous. The members of the so-called Arab “youth bulge” are demanding neither the unification of the Arab world as espoused by the pan-Arabists of the 1960s, nor an Islamic state of the 1980s, but rather a dignified life, social justice, and freedom.
Turkey's Dual Track Approach Toward the Kurdistan Regional Government
Turkey’s policy toward the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq has undergone an important shift since 2009. Only a few years ago, Turkey did not recognize Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government and refused to meet with its representatives in any official capacity due to its fear that recognition would embolden Turkey's own Kurdish minority to demand similar home-rule status.
Turkey’s professional military has been a force for modernization and progress throughout the nation’s history. As the constitutionally-appointed guardian of the Turkish Republic, however, the military has often intervened in political affairs, resulting in a constant, underlying tension between the government and the military establishment in Turkey.
Turkey and Israel: What Lies Behind the Recent Volte Face
In recent months, the Israeli-Turkish relationship, strong and stable during the 1990s, has been placed under severe pressure. Tensions began in January 2009 when Israel launched military operations in Gaza, later prompting Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to walk out of a televised debate with Israeli President Shimon Peres following a heated exchange over the issue.
