The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran
As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run not by polished diplomats, but by an unlikely figure: a Pakistani general. Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, has quietly become the key intermediary in the U.S.-Iran standoff, managing what may be the most important backchannel between the two sides. The mediation has thrust Pakistan to the center of the crisis while exposing it to enormous risk.
Bonus Episode: Stalled Talks and Next Steps for the US and Iran
This bonus episode of Middle East Focus features a recent MEI Virtual Briefing. Director of Communications Zeina Al-Shaib is joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellows Alan Eyre and Daniel Benaim to discuss the historic talks held in Pakistan last weekend between the United States and Iran. Tehran insists the US failed to gain its trust, while the US made its red lines clear and declared it would blockade Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. What happens next? Eyre and Benaim offer insights into what goes on behind the scenes at such negotiations; identify the core issues at play; explore potential incentives to end the war; analyze the weaponization of energy; as well as assess the role of other regional players in this conflict.
The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict: A strategic concern for the US
Pakistan’s relationship with the Afghan Taliban has shifted from open sponsorship in the 1990s to a silent partnership following 2001 to alienation and belligerence since 2021. Their current conflict, which comes at great cost to both countries and seems to have no easy military or political resolution, also poses a threat to the stability and prosperity of neighboring states. Although American strategic interests in the region greatly diminished following the United States’ military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the region’s altered political dynamics have prompted a growing American engagement with Pakistan and tentatively with Afghanistan. At the same time, the US has become a factor in how both Islamabad and Kabul have come to form their national security strategies.
Pakistan and the Middle East’s evolving approach to Afghanistan
Afghanistan has long been an arena for proxy contestations by regional powers, which have adopted rather divergent Afghan policies over the past several decades of foreign occupation and are doing so again now when the country is in the vicelike grip of a resurgent Taliban.
The IMF, CPEC, and Pakistan: Will the Chinese save Islamabad yet again?
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once heralded as a “game-changer,” has almost disappeared from the spotlight in recent years. The project has faced slow implementation, unpaid loans, corruption, and a dire security situation. How is China responding to Pakistan’s poor handling of CPEC, its perpetual financial troubles, and its periodic demands on China to bail it out?
Monday Briefing: The Middle East is the closest it has ever been to an all-out war
After 10 months of Israel’s war on Gaza, the US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents. As a result, Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides. The Middle East is today the closest it has ever been to an all-out multi-front regional war.
Iran strives to become a pan-sectarian Islamic power
The success of Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 marked the first time in modern history that a secular regime in the Middle East was toppled in favor of a theocratic, Islamist order. Over the following decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s primary objective has been to become a regional hegemon. In pursuit of this goal, Iran’s Shi’a clerical leadership has been willing to adopt a remarkably pragmatic approach, allowing it to often diverge from its religious dogma.
Pakistan’s political scene looks increasingly unsettled and complicated
The deep rift between the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and Pakistan’s civil-military establishment shows no sign of weakening but appears to be shifting. The coalition government and its military sponsors, so recently seen as having taken command of the political heights, are now showing signs of panicking as they appear to be losing the initiative and ability to set the narrative.
Why Pakistan is looking to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to ramp up investment
Pakistan’s government is pursuing a two-track approach to stabilize the country’s long-troubled economy. It is engaged in lengthy negotiations with the IMF to secure at least $6 billion in loans to shore up its ability to service its external debt. At the same time, Islamabad is also trying to woo its Gulf allies, most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in a bid to diversify its sources of external financing, address the lingering threat of insolvency, and put its economy on an upward trajectory of sustainable growth.
Since seizing control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban has appointed thousands of individuals to various political, military, administrative, and judicial positions across the country, occupying crucial roles as decision-makers, influencers, local enforcers, and implementers who help shape the Taliban government policies and actions.
From “fierce entanglement” to a viable path toward Palestinian statehood: A pragmatic proposal
The Israelis and Palestinians are stuck with each other in a situation of “fierce entanglement.” Things never got “bad enough” for Israel to work toward a better and lasting solution with the Palestinians until Oct. 7 abruptly changed the status quo. After the visceral anger subsides and Hamas is replaced in Gaza, Israel and the Palestinian Authority must work together for something other than “waiting for the next round of violence.”
“Gwadar is the future”: China and Pakistan’s troubled strategic port on the Arabian Sea
Strategically located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz on the Arabian Sea, Gwadar, once a derelict port, was revitalized as part of the broader development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and declared fully operational in 2021. Can a renewed focus on the Gwadar port and the socio-economic and security situation of the surrounding region help Islamabad and Beijing rescue CPEC from failure?
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