The US administration appears to have great expectations for Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali Falah al-Zaidi. But the expectations need to be tempered.
After months of deadlock following the November 2025 elections, Iraq’s parliament approved a new government under Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on May 14, 2026 — just as the country has become a battleground in the US-Israel-Iran war. Zaidi inherits a daunting brief: reviving a struggling economy, reining in armed factions, and steering Iraq through a perilous regional landscape. Dr. Renad Mansour, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme and director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, joins host Alistair Taylor to discuss the war’s impact on Iraq — from Iran’s militia networks to the surge of attacks on the Kurdistan region — and how it’s reshaping Baghdad’s ties with Tehran and Washington.
Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford to examine what is at stake for Iraq in the Iran war. The only country to have been hit by both sides, Iraq is caught in the middle of a regional conflict, with the local Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) carrying out attacks on American interests and personnel — and the US responding. This escalation comes at a period of internal political transition in Iraq, which has been locked in negotiations to form a new government since the November 2025 elections. Ford, who served as Deputy and later Acting Ambassador in Baghdad from 2008 until 2010, unpacks how Iraq is navigating the current moment, how the Kurdistan region fits into this equation, and what this all means for the future of US-Iraqi relations.
On September 25 Iraq’s Kurdish region pressed ahead with a controversial independence referendum. It had a high voter turnout of 73%, 93% of whom voted in favor of independence. The referendum is technically non-binding but it has sparked a political crisis with threats of action against the Kurdish region from its neighbors, Turkey and Iran, as well as Iraq’s central government. The United States also opposed the vote. MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, and Ahmad Majidyar join host Paul Salem to discuss the implications of the vote and what happens next.
A senior Iranian military official said today that the country’s armed forces have staged wargames codenamed Eqtedar (Might) in the northwest close to Iraqi Kurdistan to send a clear message to the ene
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Iran, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s efforts to push for dialogue after the Kurdish independence referendum, the pending indictment of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, signs of progress in the reconcilliation attempt between Hamas and Fatah, and the Saudi king’s visit to Moscow.
An Iranian official said on Monday that Tehran has stopped 600 trucks carrying about 13,000 tons of fuel to enter Iraqi Kurdistan as part of a trade embargo on Erbil, Fars News Agency reported. Seyed Hamid Hosseini, the head of Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce, told reporters in Tehran that the decision was taken after Iraqi Kurdish leaders held an independence referendum a week ago despite opposition from Baghdad and Tehran.
A senior Iraqi delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to coordinate “joint military efforts” between the two countries. According to the Iranian media reported, Lieutenant General Othman al-Ghanmi, the chief of staff of Iraqi Armed Forces, and his Iranian counterpart Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed two key issues: joint counterterrorism measures along the two countries’ common frontier and how to respond to the Iraqi Kurdistan’s push for independence.
A spokesman of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) has said that the paramilitary forces will “not rush to a civil war sought by” Iraqi Kurdistan’s President Masoud Barzani, but cautioned that P.M.F.
Iranian-aligned Iraqi militant leaders continue to threaten violence against the Kurdish Regional Government (K.R.G.) over the independence vote on Monday. “Kurdistan’s referendum has no value and the resistance will take a series of measures to respond,” said Jafar al-Husseini, the spokesman of the Hezbollah Brigades, an Iranian-sponsored militia group within the Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.). “Officials in Kurdistan are American tools in Iraq and the region.
Iranian leaders and state-run media outlets reacted angrily to Iraqi Kurdistan’s decision to hold an independence referendum on Monday, and threatened retaliatory actions against Erbil. Tehran halted all flights to and from Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq and the Iranian military launched war games near the Kurdish border. Senior Iranian officials stressed that the Islamic Republic rejects the plebiscite and described it as an “Israeli and American plot” to divide Iraq and counter Iranian influence in the region.
Turkey has been threatening economic sanctions and military action against its long-time ally, the Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) over Erbil’s decision to hold an independence vote.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, W. Robert Pearson, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Kurdish independence referendum and how it will impact the K.R.G.’s negotiations with Baghdad, Turkey’s limited options to respond to the referendum, growing ties between Turkey and Russia, and the mounting political pressure on Iran’s President Rouhani amid President Trump’s attacks on the nuclear deal.
An Iraqi militia group today accused the Kurdish peshmerga forces of having “occupied” the province of Kirkuk and stressed that his forces are ready to “liberate disputed regions” in Iraq. “The Iraqi government should act with determination to liberate Kirkuk from separatist paramilitaries before it is too late,” Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-sponsored group fighting in Iraq and Syria, said in a statement as Iraqi Kurds were casting their ballots for an independence referendum.
Iranian leaders strongly denounced today’s referendum vote for the Iraqi Kurdistan region and warned that the move could have serious ramifications for Iraq and the broader region.
Qais al-Khazali, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia group Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, has accused the Kurdistan Regional Government of executing an “Israeli project” by dividing Iraq and warned that his forces will not allow it to happen. “The enemies of Imam Hussein raised the flag of the homosexuals in Erbil at the wishes of the Israelis,” he said in a speech to his followers.
While much of the international dialogue concerning the Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s independence referendum has concerned will of “Kurdish people,” the media and international community have ignored the fact that the Kurds themselves are deeply divided on the issue.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
