As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.
The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.
Iran, Turkey, and the future of the South Caucasus
Since late September 2021, Tehran and Baku have engaged in a process of de-escalation, largely focused on economic cooperation and regional transportation links. Such efforts should be welcomed, but underlying geopolitical tensions, especially the Iranian-Turkish competition for influence in the South Caucasus, can still derail them at any moment.
President Erdoğan, as the leader of a middle-sized power strengthening an independent role, wants to enhance the reputation and expand that role for Turkey regionally and globally by achieving a balance of Ukrainian and Russian influence in the region.
How will the war in Ukraine affect EU-MENA relations?
While most analyses of the war in Ukraine have tended to focus on the intra-European dimension, it is worth exploring the potential consequences of this conflict for the EU’s relations with countries further afield, especially those in the Middle East and North Africa.
The Ukraine war has upended Turkey’s plans to stabilize the economy
The war in Ukraine couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Turkish economy. Amid the country’s ongoing economic crisis, the government has been implementing extraordinary and unconventional monetary and fiscal policies.
Drones are re-engineering the geopolitics of the Middle East
The Middle East is experiencing a seismic shift in its geopolitics: the dawn of the era of drones. From Syria to Libya and from Yemen to Iraq, UAVs have altered the dynamics on the battlefield. Agile and affordable, drones aren’t just a menace to remote conflict zones, but also to states far removed from theaters of war.
ليس شرقًا ولا غربًا: حسابات تركيا في أزمة أوكرانيا
تحمل الأزمة في أوكرانيا، من وجهة نظر أنقرة، مخاطر كبيرة، لكنها تنطوي أيضًا على بعض الفرص. إنها ليست أزمة من صنعهم، ولا أزمة رحبوا بها. ومع ذلك، من الواضح أن أنقرة جهَّزت مخططًا أساسيًا لتجاوز العاصفة. من وجهة نظر صانعي السياسة في واشنطن، من المرجح أن تجلب استراتيجيتهم إحباطًا أكثر من تطمينًا.
وفي نفس الوقت، فإن الفهم الأفضل لكيف تأمل تركيا أن تتجاوز الأزمة الأوكرانية يمكن أن يساعد في توضيح بعض النقاشات الجارية داخل واشنطن حول كيفية تصور السياسة الخارجية الجديدة لأنقرة ومكانها داخل حلف الناتو.
Neither East nor West: Turkey’s calculations in the Ukraine crisis
The crisis in Ukraine, from the perspective of Ankara, carries significant risks, but also some opportunity. It is neither a crisis of their own making, nor one that they welcomed; nevertheless, Ankara has clearly developed a basic blueprint for weathering the storm. From the perspective of Washington policymakers, their strategy is likely to hold more frustration than reassurance.
Fragile promise: The prospects for Turkish-Armenian normalization
Now, after decades of animosity, Turkey and Armenia are taking steps to normalize ties, and the prospects for restoring relations and reopening the border have never been brighter.
وسط مخاوف الغرب من أن روسيا على وشك مهاجمة أوكرانيا، وقعت تركيا وأوكرانيا اتفاقية للتجارة الحرة وأعلنتا عن صفقة لأوكرانيا لتصنيع طائرات مُسيّرة تركية خلال زيارة الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان الأخيرة إلى كييف في 3 فبراير/شباط. تمثل الزيارة جزءًا من خطة أردوغان لتعميق علاقات تركيا بأوكرانيا، التي لا تعد فقط سوقًا مهمًا لتصدير منتجات الدفاع التركية، ولكنها أيضًا أساسية لجهود أنقرة للتخفيف من التداعيات السلبية للعقوبات الأمريكية على صناعتها الدفاعية. إحدى هذه المجالات التي خلقت فيها العقوبات الأمريكية مأزقًا للصناعات الدفاعية التركية هي تكنولوجيا المحركات.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
