في 23 سبتمبر الماضي، احتفلت المملكة العربية السعودية بالذكرى التسعين لتأسيسها.
The jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria has dispatched its fighters from greater Idlib eastward, taking full control of Afrin city and at least 26 towns and villages to its southwest, most without a fight. This has placed many of its jihadist opponents back under HTS’s control. The dynamics of northwestern Syria are shifting, and the consequences look likely to be extremely significant.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The last few weeks in Iran arguably have been as tumultuous as the final days before the fall of the Shah. And they could be just as consequential — if the West and regional powers respond appropriately. While Iran is undeniably at the center of this escalating conflict, what external actors do matters.
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The Saudi-Iran dialogue continues, but has produced little progress. As James Jeffrey of the Wilson Center and Bilal Saab of the Middle East Institute argue, part of the reason is that the two powers have fundamentally different objectives for the negotiations and that the power imbalance in Iran’s favor is profound. They suggest ways that Saudi Arabia might improve its bargaining power and argue that the United States can help strengthen Riyadh’s position.
The supreme leader’s stance will deepen societal conflict — and split the Islamic clerical class.
Since the Biden Administration came to office, Washington has been full of reports that the United States and its Gulf allies are drifting apart. The core argument was that in order to deliver for the Democratic Party’s grassroots base, U.S. President Joe Biden would seek to pursue a foreign policy that prioritized American values over American interests. In such a policy turn, Gulf States would be adversely impacted as the U.S.-Gulf relations are much more about common interests than common values—such as political democracy, the issue of human or labor rights, etc.
The Houthis have a poor track record in negotiations. But giving up on negotiating with them isn’t an option.
My week of meetings with Israeli and Palestinian officials and analysts in mid-September has left me groping for a coherent through line in the story about today’s Middle East. It’s the best of times and the worst of times, depending on where one sits.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
U.S. Central Command is quietly making a historic transition from a wartime command center to something like a hub for cajoling the region’s partners large and small toward stouter collective defense. But since CENTCOM’s new commander has vastly fewer resources for his tough new mission, defense and national security leaders in Washington need to back him up with a larger measure of policy coherence.
It appears that calm has returned to Iraq after the reported intervention of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country’s chief and widely respected Shia cleric. In recent weeks, violence had occurred in and near parliament, which has been unable to implement last October’s election results. The clashes involved demonstrators and armed forces loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr, the leading candidate in the elections, and militias loyal to a loose array of rival Shia political parties calling themselves the Coordination Framework.