Can the US and Turkey mend fences in Manbij? | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Bilal Y. Saab, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkey-U.S. cooperation in Syria amid diplomatic tensions, talks between U.S. and Russian officials on Syria policy, the implications of a new Iranian fighter jet, and Egypt’s revitalized work in regional diplomacy.
Last week, major news outlets reported that China National Petroleum Corporation had acquired French oil and gas company Total’s share in the development of Iran’s South Pars gas field, citing an elusive article published by Iranian state news agency IRNA.
Following the Syrian government’s full reconquest of the country’s south, there are real signs that Russia intends to reduce its presence and responsibilities in Syria. Moscow has not stated this openly, in contrast to its three previous drawdown announcements. Each of these announcements came after a major victory, such as the recapture of Aleppo from rebels or eastern Syria from ISIS, and did not result in any tangible reductions. Despite an absence of fanfare, however, recent developments and statements indicate that a partial drawdown is already underway.
India and the Middle East: Building Joint Knowledge on Managing Sand and Dust Storms
Over the past 25 years, the world has seen a rise in the frequency of natural disasters in rich and poor countries alike. Today, there are more people at risk from natural hazards than ever, with those in developing countries particularly at risk. This essay series explores measures that have been taken, and could be taken, in order to improve responses to the threat or occurrence of natural disasters in the MENA and Indo-Pacific regions.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on Turkey’s currency crisis, talks in Ankara over the future of Idlib, Abadi’s chances of clinging to the premiership, and the Taliban’s capture of Ghazni.
Iran sanctions may see US-Turkey ties get a lot worse
This week, the Trump administration reimposed economic sanctions on Iran, targeting mainly financial transactions with and commercial airline sales to Iran. Tougher sanctions to stop the sale of Iranian gas and oil will go into effect in November. In a tweet, President Donald Trump issued a strong warning to those trading with Iran: “Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States.” Its NATO ally Turkey is defiant. In a Jul.
Despite the absence of a public and formal account of what transpired during the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Helsinki on Jul. 16, it seems that there is at least tacit agreement that effectively endorses the Syrian regime’s takeover of southern Syria and limits Iranian presence in Syrian areas near the Jordanian and Israeli borders.
Oman’s Transition to a Post-Oil Economy: Arching Toward Asia
The development of Duqm Port and Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is at the forefront of Oman’s efforts to transition to a post-oil economy. The Malaysian economic transformation management model, the Singaporean example of achieving prosperity through combining free trade and business-friendly policies with its role as a trans-shipment and logistics hub, and an initial infusion of substantial Chinese investment capital and project participation all have played central roles in how this process has unfolded — and will likely remain key determinants of its future progress.
Will US sanctions bring Iran back to the negotiating table?
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on the first batch of U.S. sanctions on Iran, leaked emails that may undermine the Trump administration’s Mideast peace plan, and the assassination of a Syrian military scientist.
Will US sanctions bring Iran back to the negotiating table?
Trump’s unconvincing "hearts and minds" strategy on Iran
In the span of one week, President Donald Trump both warned Iran’s leaders of a calamitous response to any belligerence from Tehran and offered Tehran a “real” nuclear deal if they come back to the negotiation table. It is just the latest example of the Trump administration’s disjointed Iran policy.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts provide analysis on Fatah-Hamas reconciliation talks in Cairo, possible cooperation between the Syrian Democratic Council and the Assad regime, the protests in Iraq, the U.S.’s lifting of restrictions on aid to Egypt, and Imran Khan’s victory in the Pakistani elections.
