Analysis

Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine helped influence the updated European Maritime Security Strategy’s approach to the Black and Mediterranean seas, with implicit and explicit references to the war dispersed throughout the document. The updated EUMSS showcases the wide array of security issues present in the region, including seaborne UXOs, human and drug trafficking, and threats to critical infrastructure. But security in the Black and Mediterranean seas will require greater cooperation with non-EU countries.

The blue economy can offer huge potential in climate change mitigation and resilience, given the fact that marine habitats, such as mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows, provide significant protection from erratic climate events. MENA countries would benefit from developing the blue economy to aid in reversing natural resource degradation, sustaining inclusive economic development, and building resilience to climate change.

Until recently, the EU has favored a piecemeal approach toward the Northwestern Indian Ocean, the Gulf, and the Red Sea, despite their close interdependence and inter-connectedness in the security, political, and economic realms. But the EU is now signaling a growing desire to steer its naval policy toward a more holistic and organic process, creating an opportunity for Brussels to become a more relevant security actor in the waters off the Arabian Peninsula.

As Turkey heads to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections this month, the consequences for its troubled economy are likely to be significant and wide-ranging. Financial stability, business confidence, purchasing power, and asset prices all depend on whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s two-decade-long rule will continue; at the same time these factors will also determine his chances for re-election. There are a number of potential election outcomes that could lead to greater uncertainty and volatility rather than clarity and stability.

If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AKP are defeated in this month’s elections, the next government, led by the CHP, will likely prove more agreeable — or at least no more difficult — on virtually every issue of importance to the United States and Turkey’s other allies in the NATO. There undoubtedly will still be areas of contention, including some of the same ones that have bedeviled the West’s relations with Turkey under Erdoğan. For reasons both ideological and economic, however, a new Turkish government would want a closer relationship with the West than Erdoğan has pursued for many years.

On May 14, Turkish voters are headed to the polls for twin elections — presidential and parliamentary — that are expected to shape the country’s political trajectory for years to come. While the presidential race has generated wide interest in the international media, there is little informed discussion when it comes to the parliamentary elections. Unlike the presidential elections, which quickly turned into a tight contest between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the parliamentary races are more unpredictable at this point.

As Turkey gears up for a crucial election, the country is currently witnessing two very different political campaign styles. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is seeking re-election, is competing against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the joint candidate of the Nation Alliance. The two candidates’ wildly different political and governing styles are apparent in their campaigns: President Erdoğan follows a polarizing, negative, and fear-based approach focused on energizing his base, while Kılıçdaroğlu’s campaign is dynamic, inclusive, and positive.

We’re only in May but it’s safe to say that 2023 has been one of the longest years in the history of Turkish politics. The main issues in the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are the deteriorating economic conditions and identity politics. For the first time in two decades President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is heading into an election not in the lead.

It is a cliché for politicians to claim that an upcoming election is the most critical vote in the history of the country. In Turkey’s case, however, the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are indeed the most consequential ever. The prospects for Turkey’s democratic future are at stake.

The U.S. administration is tacitly contributing to growing acceptance and re-normalization of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the 21st century’s most notorious war criminal, putting in jeopardy the continuation of our counter-terrorism mission in Syria. Assad is toasting his survival on the ashes of his victims — but within the small community of optimistic actors in Syria, ISIS is sitting pretty comfortably too.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is at its core an ideological army, not a national one, and its notorious enmity toward Israel is an aberration in Iranian history. But many Israelis to this day think Iran could be a natural partner as long as the country gave up its pursuit of ideologically driven regional dominance, disavow calls for the destruction of Israel, and were instead to again allow the regular army, the Artesh, to pursue Iranian national interests.

Although Russia has vested interests in the Burhan-Hemedti conflict, it is unlikely to actively pursue a blanket destabilization strategy in Sudan. Instead, it is likely to balance close ties with both warring parties and continue actively opposing a democratic transition in Sudan.

The Syrian conflict has had a major impact on Turkey’s internal political discourse, with much of the discussion centering around the conflict itself, Turkey’s role in northern Syria, and the refugee crisis. This paper employs a scenario analysis methodology to explore potential outcomes that may impact Northwestern Syria following the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14.

The Biden administration’s National Cybersecurity Strategy, released on March 2, 2023, revamped the U.S. approach to cyberspace and underlined the ways in which the government aims to build a more resilient, defensible, and values-aligned cyberspace. What does the strategy mean and what opportunities might it present for U.S. partners and allies in the Middle East?

Both historical and modern-day conflicts in the Middle East have all been centered around classical territorial considerations of the loss or recovery of land. Escaping that cycle required a shift away from one of the main root causes of conflict: geography. The current changes in the region, characterized by a significant drive toward de-escalation and a growing willingness to periodically part ways with traditional allies, may be telling symptoms of a profound tectonic shift toward “quantum politics.”