America moves closer to the brink of maximum uncertainty at home and abroad
The spotlight in America this week is trained on the home front, with growing tensions inside the country over President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown and a showdown unfolding on the streets of Los Angeles. At times like these, the rest of the world has a way of intruding, sometimes unexpectedly, and Trump 2.0’s foreign policy is still struggling to produce a major positive outcome from its frenetic activity trying to end kinetic wars while prosecuting an unprecedented economic war with much of the rest of the world.
Saudi Arabia’s AI ambition, and what it means for the United States
A day before Air Force One touched down in Riyadh to kick off US President Donald Trump’s three-country tour of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia made a pivotal announcement. The kingdom, long synonymous with oil, revealed a major investment in artificial intelligence (AI) through its newly launched company, HumAIn. This pivot, explicitly timed to coincide with Trump’s visit starting on May 13, and in anticipation of the signing of multiple tech deals between US and Gulf firms during the trip, signaled a profound shift in US-Saudi relations — from a traditional oil-for-security alliance to a partnership centered on AI and digital infrastructure.
Near-term progress in a renewed nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran could add further downward pressure to a delicate oil market, potentially heralding more fiscal pain for Gulf oil producers and complicating US energy strategy.
Syria Looks to a Future Unburdened from US Sanctions
MEI Senior Fellow Charles Lister joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss the Trump administration’s dramatic reversal of four decades of US policy toward Syria. Following President Trump’s May 2025 meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and the issuance of a new general license and 180-day waiver of Caesar Act sanctions, the episode explores the implications of this policy shift. What does this mean for Syria’s recovery and reconstruction? How are regional actors like Turkey, Israel, and the Gulf states responding?
Back to reality: Gravity remains in place after Trump’s trip
The harsh realities of the region’s threats and challenges, like Iran and the Gaza war, stubbornly persist following the pomp and circumstance of Trump’s “spring bling” tour, which featured eye-popping dollar figures and an offer of a luxury jumbo jet from Qatar.
US-Houthi Ceasefire Deal & the Future of Red Sea Security
The sudden announcement of a US-Houthi ceasefire, brokered by Oman, has halted Washington’s air campaign in Yemen and raised urgent questions about the future of Red Sea security. What prompted the deal, and what are its implications for maritime shipping, regional alliances, and the trajectory of Yemen’s civil war? This episode explores the strategic motivations behind the ceasefire, the role of Iran and Saudi Arabia, and how the Houthis could leverage the pause to regroup and expand their influence across the Horn of Africa.
Trump should build on the momentum with Syria and help prevent a Turkey-Israel clash
Two recent developments present the new Syrian government with a critical opportunity to stabilize the country. First, US President Donald Trump announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria. Second, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party declared it would disband and dissolve itself — a move that will help Damascus to finalize a deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces and integrate it into the new Syrian national army. President Trump should build on this momentum and seize the opportunity to address one of the most complex remaining challenges facing Syria: the risk of a military confrontation between Turkey and Israel inside the country.
A midstream appraisal of Trump’s historic Middle East trip
One of the strategic thrusts of the opening months of Trump’s second terms has been aimed at deepening America’s economic engagement with the leading economies of the Gulf. Thus, the first leg of his trip to the region resulted in a template for deeper US-Saudi ties.
This week, US President Donald Trump makes his inaugural visit to the Middle East since the start of his second term, traveling to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates on May 13-16. Amid the heightened focus on US policy toward the Middle East, MEI’s experts take stock of Trump’s trip to the Gulf, how his administration has shaped its approach to the wider region in its first several months, and how regional actors are responding to the policies coming out of Washington.
The Damascus-SDF agreement two months on: Fragile progress or delayed collapse?
On March 10, 2025, Ahmed al-Sharaa, the president of Syria, and Mazloum Abdi, the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces, signed a historic agreement, ending a long-running divide between Damascus and the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. Now, two months after the deal was signed, how far has it progressed, and what are the main obstacles and disputes between the parties during this transitional phase?
President Donald J. Trump’s trip to the Middle East on May 13-16 comes on the heels of more than three months of whirlwind activity in US foreign policy where the region has been a higher priority than it was in the early months of the previous US administration. The US president has gained attention by proposing some provocative ideas and his team has made some signs of progress in talks with Iran, but thus far the second Trump administration has produced very few tangible advances for stability, prosperity, and progress in the Middle East. The following report assesses the US government’s actions on Middle East policy over the past three months, from late January to late April 2025.
It’s time to end the EU’s Assad-era sanctions on Syria
As the EU prepares for its annual review of sanctions imposed on Syria, it faces a moment of reckoning — an opportunity to demonstrate whether its policies not only continue to be principled and legal, but also in line with its strategic interests. They no longer serve the purpose for which they were designed, and the EU should let the entire sanctions regime on Syria collapse unconditionally and immediately.
As Saudi Arabia accelerates its transformation into a global technology powerhouse, the United States has a pivotal opportunity to redefine its partnership with the kingdom. Moving beyond the traditional oil-for-security framework, a new partnership centered on artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure can anchor US-Saudi relations in the 21st century.
Trump’s domestic political support craters at the 100-day mark before his Middle East trip
President Donald Trump reached the 100-day mark in his second term this week seeing a sharp drop in his domestic political standing. This comes less than two weeks before Trump embarks on a key Middle East trip to the Gulf. The administration may be looking to the presidential visit as a chance to achieve some progress, but the region remains fraught with uncertainty and US policy in the Middle East rarely provides domestic political dividends.
Iran appears to be reorienting its approach to diplomatic engagement with its neighbors and the West by prioritizing the economic benefits of cooperation. A possible withdrawal of support for the Houthis is the latest significant potential outcome of Iran’s shifting stance. The following are five factors to watch for as a Tehran under duress reformulates its policies.
