The EU and its policy toward the Middle East: What might change in 2023?
The lack of a nuclear deal with Iran, the risk of escalating tensions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the increasingly complex relationship with Turkey are just some of the thorny regional issues facing the European Union. A breakthrough on any of these three issues this year will be exceedingly difficult.
A decline in average annual precipitation, rise in temperatures, and dire water shortages are leading drivers of climate-induced internal migration in Iran. This long-term trend was further exacerbated in 2022 by more intense heat waves, resulting in a spike in seasonal migration.
2023 ADSW: A solid start for a climate-focused year in the UAE
This year’s Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week focused on both adaptation strategies and mitigation actions. Judging by the solid foundation established at this conference, and building on the efforts the UAE launched in previous years, the upcoming COP28, which will be hosted in Dubai, appears to have all the ingredients to bring together relevant stakeholders and deliver on its promises.
From the streets to the border: Iran’s growing paranoia toward Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani-Iranian relations have been strained since Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 war with Armenia. However, the situation dramatically worsened in the last few months, with Iran holding two large-scale drills near the border with Azerbaijan and accusing Baku of colluding with its enemies and interfering in its internal affairs.
A new momentum: Recalibrating Germany's foreign policy toward the Gulf monarchies
Facing the profound challenge of trying to diversify its energy supply while a destabilizing war rages on in Ukraine, Germany has looked to several Gulf monarchies to forge new energy partnerships. Notwithstanding heated domestic debates over controversial topics such as their human rights record, Berlin should consider a more comprehensive strategic approach toward the Gulf monarchies that encompasses issues beyond energy supply, such as joint efforts in regional integration and development.
Climate-induced migration in the GCC states: A looming challenge
Gulf states are collectively investing billions of dollars in developing renewable energy. Yet climate change patterns in neighboring regions, combined with rising average temperatures, could eventually trigger more serious climate migration problems for the Gulf countries themselves.
Young Ukrainians’ evolving war-time attitudes toward Russia and the West
Listening to students and young professionals is instrumental in understanding the Ukrainian perspective. A series of interviews, conducted in summer 2022, centered around their identity as Ukrainians, how the war is impacting their lives, and how they viewed Russia and the West before and after Feb. 24, 2022. The participants in these interviews have only known an independent Ukraine, and their negative feelings toward Russia will not improve anytime soon.
Iran’s Balkan front: The roots and consequences of Iranian cyberattacks against Albania
A series of damaging Iranian hacks of Albania’s critical digital infrastructure over the summer pushed Tirana to break off bilateral diplomatic relations. Iran has regularly responded to sanctions or perceived provocations through cyberattack campaigns, as was visible in the case of Albania, guilty in the Iranian authorities’ eyes for the accommodations it has given to the anti-regime group MEK .
What role will China play in Ukraine’s post-war transformation?
Cost estimates for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction already exceed many hundreds of billions of dollars. Given the Western world’s slowing economic prospects, Ukrainian elites admit that China looks increasingly likely to have a role in helping finance and rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure. But Chinese involvement comes with economic and security risks.
What the United Nations’ 6th Climate Assessment tells us about the Mediterranean’s climate future
The latest U.N. IPCC report details the alarming changes that Mediterranean countries will experience in the coming decades due to climate change, highlighting three critical areas — warming and droughts, declining ecosystems, as well as socioeconomic and public health risks.
With COP27 concluded, we asked experts from across MEI, some of whom attended the meeting, to offer their perspectives on the developments that came out of the conference and what it means moving forward, especially for the Middle East and North Africa.
Russia’s new military: The rise of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group
Kremlin-linked oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the notorious Wagner Group PMC, is taking power away from the traditional Russian military establishment and fostering President Putin’s dependence on his resources and advice. This trend will undoubtedly propel the escalation of the war in Ukraine and possibly inflict irrevocable damage to the future utility of the Russian Armed Forces.
