Research & Commentary Results

After two decades in power and following the Justice and Development Party’s historic defeat in the 2024 local elections, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now at his most vulnerable. What comes next is not only important for the future prospects of Turkish democracy but also holds important lessons for autocrats across the world. Scholars Evren Balta, Seda Demiralp, Edgar Şar, and M. Murat Kubilay seek to answer key questions about the country’s political, economic, and foreign policy trajectory in a new report from the Middle East Institute.

For years under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey pursued an unconventional monetary policy. The situation, long untenable, finally became unsustainable in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2023. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, President Erdoğan announced a dramatic shift, returning to orthodox monetary policy. While there have been tangible improvements on a number of fronts as a result, the country faces both declining household purchasing power in the short term and a range of broader economic challenges in the longer run.

Similar to the normalization trends in domestic politics, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has bolstered normalization in foreign policy, aiming for integration into regional and international blocs. The domestic economic and political crises further underscored this trend, and the results of the March 2024 local elections demonstrated to the government that its polarizing discourse no longer resonates either inside or outside the country. This article analyzes the changing domestic political dynamics of foreign policy, Turkey’s role in the Western alliance with a specific emphasis on the Ukrainian War, and the Middle East normalization process in light of the Gaza conflict.

If the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) were to take a more active role in efforts to peacefully resolve the Kurdish issue in Turkey, it could potentially help to break the current impasse. What this role might entail and whether the party is capable of playing it effectively are key questions. This piece will explore these issues by examining the experience of its predecessor, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), over the past decade, as well as the debates following the May 2023 general elections and March 2024 local elections.

While the 2023 elections caused widespread disappointment among op-position voters and an acute rise in political apathy, the 2024 elections once again restored hopes for Turkish democratization. About a month after the local elections, President Erdoğan held a private meeting with CHP leader Özgür Özel at the AKP headquarters. The meeting ended with both leaders announcing the beginning of a new period in Turkish politics, which Erdoğan described as a “softening” and Özel as a “normalization.”

With NATO celebrating 75 years since its founding, Alliance members will gather in Washington, DC, on July 9-11, for a historic summit. Two of the key issues on the agenda will be addressing the acute threats emanating from the Black Sea region and adopting a strategic approach toward the Middle East and Africa.

In its 2022 Strategic Concept, NATO declared the Black Sea Region (BSR) of strategic importance for the Alliance, yet this recognition has never translated into NATO developing a proper strategy toward its critical southeastern flank. That glaring gap must be addressed right away.

Pakistan’s government is pursuing a two-track approach to stabilize the country’s long-troubled economy. It is engaged in lengthy negotiations with the IMF to secure at least $6 billion in loans to shore up its ability to service its external debt. At the same time, Islamabad is also trying to woo its Gulf allies, most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in a bid to diversify its sources of external financing, address the lingering threat of insolvency, and put its economy on an upward trajectory of sustainable growth.

While the Washington Summit is unlikely to deliver any ground-breaking outcome, it certainly offers the opportunity to articulate the nexus between security in Europe and the Mediterranean-African region. NATO also has the opportunity to renew and streamline its partnerships with Middle Eastern and North African countries while strengthening its outreach to Africa.

Ankara can make a vital contribution as questions loom over the long-term US commitment to the continent’s security

The most defining aspect of the Sino-Turkish relationship is the need for Turkey to find economic or geopolitical leverage to attain some semblance of equality with China. During Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent visit to Beijing, his subtle references to the Turkic and Islamic credentials of Xinjiang may have gotten lost in translation for the Chinese.

A little over a year ago, the icy relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underwent a remarkable thaw. But beneath this détente, a new front emerged in their longstanding rivalry — one rooted not in geopolitics or religious ideologies but in the realm of soft power and societal aspirations.

Kuwait’s emir, Sheikh Mishal Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah, took his next step in governance without a parliament in place on June 1, when he appointed Sheikh Sabah Khalid Al Sabah as crown prince. Although the timing of the announcement suspending portions of the constitution and dissolving the parliament caught most observers off guard, the emir’s decision was not surprising.

Around two-thirds of the population in the Middle East and North Africa lives in urban settlements and the region’s population is projected to double by 2050, exposing a growing number of people to intensifying natural and climate hazards. As a result, cities will need to take additional steps to boost climate resilience and advance decarbonization efforts, including through climate-informed urban planning measures like compact, transit-oriented development, urban greening initiatives, and a focus on green buildings. With this in mind, regional governments have recently adopted the concept of “smart cities,” aiming to utilize technology and sustainable practices to address the challenges of urbanization and climate change.

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