If both Israel and Hezbollah stand to lose from escalation, then why does it feel like war between them is imminent?
The current escalation between Israeli and Hezbollah forces necessitates immediate action from the international community to prevent a widening of the Gaza war, and the US is positioned in a leadership role to mollify tensions, beginning with diplomatic actions to stabilize the Lebanese-Israeli border, helping to pacify the broader region as a result.
A battle for hearts and minds is being waged in the winding alleyways of Beirut. The Lebanese are anxiously going about their lives while keeping an eye on the intensifying border skirmishes between Israel and the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Plastered across the city walls and hanging from lampposts is the enigmatic image of Abu Obeida, Hamas’s masked spokesperson. Wrapped in a red kufiyah, the traditional Arab head garb, he is put forth as a symbol of defiance against Israel.
The Oct. 7 Hamas attack against Israel and the latter’s ongoing military operation in Gaza have stalled progress in the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and raised questions about its prospects for eventual completion. The IMEC faces multiple viability challenges, but none of them are insurmountable; thus, its participants are unlikely to abandon it.
What would it take to start a new Israeli-Palestinian peace process that could actually have the prospect for enduring success? MEI has asked a group of regional and U.S. experts to weigh in.
As the war in Gaza continues to unfold, essential questions about Russian and Iranian support for Hamas remain. They include whether Russia played any role in providing support to Hamas ahead of its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Evidence available from foreign-language publications in Russian, Persian, Arabic, and Hebrew, as well as those in English, provides provocative leads, which, if accurate, have serious potential implications.
A long courtship
The renewed violence in Gaza could not have come at a less opportune time for the climate agenda in the Middle East. From energy economics to environmental degradation, the ripple effects of conflict will complicate the path ahead.
Oct. 7 sounded the death knell of the Abraham Accords. Yet the end to the initial conceit of the Abraham Accords does not mean an end to the essential role that the Abraham Accords partners can play in helping broker an Israeli-Palestinian agreement.
Outside of the security risks brought about by war, the Israel-Hamas conflict has yet to result in major changes in the regional natural gas market.
Despite the Houthis’ geographical distance from Israel and perceived limited capabilities, the threat they represent is all too real and if underestimated, they have the potential to derail diplomatic efforts and destabilize the region, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Washington’s chief concern regarding Israel’s ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza is the risk of regional escalation and Iran’s opening of another front against the Jewish state, which could drag the United States into the war.
The United States has communicated to Tehran the consequences of further Iranian involvement in the conflict, and it has moved additional military assets to the region to boost the credibility of its threats.
What further diplomatic steps should the U.S. take to respond to the Israel-Hamas war and its broadening regional reverberations? MEI has asked a group of former U.S. ambassadors and senior government officials specializing in the region to weigh in.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.