President Donald Trump threatens Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But measured language and disciplined policy can help prevent escalation and protect American interests.
The evolving confrontation with Israel and the United States places the Islamic Republic of Iran at a critical inflection point. Tehran faces choices that range from limited negotiation and strategic restraint to escalation and eventual collapse. The following analysis explores the key scenarios that could unfold in the coming days, weeks, and years.
Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to examine the dramatic escalation between Israel and Iran following Israel’s targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, infrastructure, and senior IRGC officials. Vatanka discusses how the Iranian regime is responding, the risk of wider regional conflict, and whether the current campaign could mark the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic.
The past four days have clarified much about what Israel wants from this conflict, what Iran can and cannot do to fight back, and what decisions confront the American president over the next few days.
The spotlight in America this week is trained on the home front, with growing tensions inside the country over President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown and a showdown unfolding on the streets of Los Angeles. At times like these, the rest of the world has a way of intruding, sometimes unexpectedly, and Trump 2.0’s foreign policy is still struggling to produce a major positive outcome from its frenetic activity trying to end kinetic wars while prosecuting an unprecedented economic war with much of the rest of the world.
A day before Air Force One touched down in Riyadh to kick off US President Donald Trump’s three-country tour of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia made a pivotal announcement. The kingdom, long synonymous with oil, revealed a major investment in artificial intelligence (AI) through its newly launched company, HumAIn. This pivot, explicitly timed to coincide with Trump’s visit starting on May 13, and in anticipation of the signing of multiple tech deals between US and Gulf firms during the trip, signaled a profound shift in US-Saudi relations — from a traditional oil-for-security alliance to a partnership centered on AI and digital infrastructure.
Near-term progress in a renewed nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran could add further downward pressure to a delicate oil market, potentially heralding more fiscal pain for Gulf oil producers and complicating US energy strategy.
Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj speak with MEI Senior Fellow Mohammed Soliman about President Donald Trump’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, which yielded a wave of major US-Gulf tech and AI deals. Soliman explains how these partnerships mark a shift in the relationship—from oil and arms to compute power and data infrastructure—and what it means for the Gulf’s strategic role in the global AI ecosystem.
The harsh realities of the region’s threats and challenges, like Iran and the Gaza war, stubbornly persist following the pomp and circumstance of Trump’s “spring bling” tour, which featured eye-popping dollar figures and an offer of a luxury jumbo jet from Qatar.
MEI Senior Fellow Iulia Joja delivers a sharp and timely warning against Russia being offered a direct role in US-Iran negotiations. Far from acting as a neutral broker, Moscow wants to leverage this moment to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. From meetings in Muscat to tightening alliances with Tehran and Beijing, Joja unpacks how Putin’s diplomacy is less about peace — and more about building up Russian influence against the US. Washington should be paying close attention.
One of the strategic thrusts of the opening months of Trump’s second terms has been aimed at deepening America’s economic engagement with the leading economies of the Gulf. Thus, the first leg of his trip to the region resulted in a template for deeper US-Saudi ties.
Neoconservatives and MAGA isolationists are locked in a battle for the soul of Republican strategy. Nowhere is the split more glaring than over the Middle East: hawks view it as a proving ground for American power and allegiance to Israel, while isolationists see only endless wars that have bled America dry. Where does Trump fall in this tug-of-war?
This week, US President Donald Trump makes his inaugural visit to the Middle East since the start of his second term, traveling to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates on May 13-16. Amid the heightened focus on US policy toward the Middle East, MEI’s experts take stock of Trump’s trip to the Gulf, how his administration has shaped its approach to the wider region in its first several months, and how regional actors are responding to the policies coming out of Washington.
President Donald Trump is heading to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE on his first foreign trip of his second term, with major investment deals, defense cooperation, and tech diplomacy on the agenda. What are the Gulf states hoping to gain, and what does the trip signal about US policy in the region? Alistair Taylor speaks with Dr. Ibrahim al-Assil, Senior Fellow at MEI, about the goals of the visit, the geopolitical and economic dynamics at play, and how regional powers are navigating a complex landscape shaped by Iran, China, AI ambitions, and the crisis in Gaza.
President Donald Trump reached the 100-day mark in his second term this week seeing a sharp drop in his domestic political standing. This comes less than two weeks before Trump embarks on a key Middle East trip to the Gulf. The administration may be looking to the presidential visit as a chance to achieve some progress, but the region remains fraught with uncertainty and US policy in the Middle East rarely provides domestic political dividends.