Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has destabilized and distressed the entire Black Sea neighborhood. Yet despite the war, or perhaps because of it, strategically important foreign direct investments into Black Sea littoral countries, including from the Gulf, have endured or even grown.
Both Washington and Jerusalem welcome any reduction in regional tensions and prospects for a more stable, secure, and prosperous environment. However, there is a risk for U.S. and Israeli policy priorities, such as that regional de-escalation will reduce pressure on Tehran to negotiate on issues of concern, especially its nuclear weapons program.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The U.S. administration is tacitly contributing to growing acceptance and re-normalization of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the 21st century’s most notorious war criminal, putting in jeopardy the continuation of our counter-terrorism mission in Syria. Assad is toasting his survival on the ashes of his victims — but within the small community of optimistic actors in Syria, ISIS is sitting pretty comfortably too.
The Syrian conflict has had a major impact on Turkey’s internal political discourse, with much of the discussion centering around the conflict itself, Turkey’s role in northern Syria, and the refugee crisis. This paper employs a scenario analysis methodology to explore potential outcomes that may impact Northwestern Syria following the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14.
Both historical and modern-day conflicts in the Middle East have all been centered around classical territorial considerations of the loss or recovery of land. Escaping that cycle required a shift away from one of the main root causes of conflict: geography. The current changes in the region, characterized by a significant drive toward de-escalation and a growing willingness to periodically part ways with traditional allies, may be telling symptoms of a profound tectonic shift toward “quantum politics.”
When Saudi Arabia suddenly announced in early April that it would reduce its oil production by 500,000 bpd, followed shortly thereafter by several other OPEC+ members, bringing the total cut to 1.1 million bpd, Japan was greatly concerned. In spite of Japan’s serious efforts to work toward a carbon-neutral society, the country is still heavily dependent on oil, the overwhelming majority of which comes from the Persian Gulf.
It has been an accepted fact that ISIS ceased being a territory-controlling entity in Syria after its March 2019 defeat in the town of Baghouz. Yet it is perhaps time to reevaluate this perspective on the group and its insurgent trajectory in the country. While recent massacres of civilians in central Syria have refocused some international attention on the desert region, known as the Badia, the renewed widespread battles between militants and regime security forces that have occurred in parallel to these attacks have gone unnoticed.
In the Middle East, the Gulf states — working together and on their own — are looking to achieve new scientific and commercial breakthroughs in various areas of the space industry. These ambitions carry major geopolitical implications with them, as an ever-growing number of spacefaring countries negotiate a sensitive and increasingly high-powered sector.
The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are less than a month away, set to be held on May 14. While the more than 200,000 Syrians who have been granted Turkish citizenship since their arrival in the wake of the Syrian war will not play a significant role in determining the outcome given their numbers, migration is a top campaign issue, putting them at the heart of the vote.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.