Turkish escalation in northeastern Syria amid changes in military strategy
After several quiet months on the Turkish-Syrian border, tensions have escalated in recent days. Turkish forces have intensified their attacks against the SDF in northeastern Syria and targeted PKK hideouts along the Turkish-Iraqi border. This escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of the suicide blast in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, on Oct. 1 that targeted the Interior Ministry.
In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program provide their views on the Oct. 7 Hamas surprise attack on Israel and what it might mean for Israelis and Palestinians, the wider region, and U.S. policy.
Key takeaways from Mohammed bin Salman’s Fox interview
Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s interview on Wednesday night with Bret Baier of Fox News didn’t break news or produce controversy. But that wasn’t the point of his appearance on one of America’s top networks.
From normalization to non-aggression: The next step in Iran-Saudi ties
The groundbreaking March 2023 normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially reshape the political landscape of the Middle East. It has already paved the way for de-securitization and the resumption of diplomatic relations. However, critical security issues remain unresolved, casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of the process. Capitalizing on this rare opportunity, Riyadh and Tehran should move forward to finalize a comprehensive non-aggression pact as the foundation for their future security relations.
The costs and benefits of Saudi-Israeli normalisation
For all the hype about the potential normalisation of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it remains vastly unclear whether the United States — the indispensable enabler and guarantor of such a deal — is willing or able to accept the kingdom’s conditions to reach an agreement.
In return for its cooperation, Saudi Arabia wants from Washington a formal defence pact, assistance in building a civilian nuclear programme, and expedited access to high-end US weapons, including F-35 fifth-generation fighter aircraft.
Deepening defense-industrial cooperation on NATO’s eastern flank
The war in Ukraine has turned policymakers’ eyes back toward the Euro-Atlantic arena and highlighted the need to reinvigorate NATO’s defense-industrial base. This analysis describes the macro policy environment that shapes the current relationship between Romania and the United States, and considers what steps the U.S. could take to improve Romania’s integration with the Euro-Atlantic defense-industrial base.
Polish and Romanian responses to Russian aggression: Lessons for a US CEE Strategy
The following analysis provides an overview of Poland’s and Romania’s engagement with NATO priorities on its eastern front line since 2022 and outlines their advocacy for increased regional security in multilateral formats. Drawing on the expertise of over two dozen Polish and Romanian security experts, it offers recommendations for an enhanced CEE security strategy for the United States, the leading member of the NATO alliance.
On this week’s episode, MEI’s Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discusses the Biden administration’s push to reach a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel with Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Saab.
While there are plenty of potential hurdles to reaching a deal — including Saudi Arabia’s steep demands, Israel’s far-right government, and challenging domestic politics here in the US — if done right, the potential geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.
After Prigozhin: The future of Wagner and Russian gray zone activities in MENA
As the Wagner Group has an entrenched military presence in Syria, Libya, and Sudan, the evisceration of its senior leadership will have serious repercussions for Russia’s influence in the MENA region. Wagner’s military contractors are unlikely to depart, since they guard strategically valuable oil and mining facilities; but they are likely to now be swiftly integrated into the regular Russian Armed Forces.
Of all the challenges to Saudi Vision 2030, arguably none is greater than Iran’s threat to Saudi national security. To succeed, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman must protect the kingdom, which will require not only fortifying its defenses against further Iranian and Houthi attacks but also establishing a level of deterrence against Tehran.
A US security guarantee to Israel should help to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace, not avoid it
It has been nearly 70 years since Israel first asked the U.S. to sign a bilateral defense treaty. Ever since then, the idea of a formal security agreement has resurfaced from time to time, only to be struck down, due to an understanding that it does not serve the two sides’ actual needs. Prime Minister Netanyahu is currently floating the idea once again, but the U.S. can make use of his interest in a security upgrade to revive a different idea instead: the decade-old security plan for the two-state solution, known as the Allen Plan.
Peshmerga reform hangs in the balance in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region
Efforts to reform the Iraqi Kurdish security forces known as the Peshmerga are at serious risk of failing. Tensions between the ruling parties of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region are not new, but the working relationship between the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has collapsed over the past year. As a result, officials within the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs are no longer capable of preventing the politics of partisan self-interest from consuming the reform project. The prospects for the depoliticization and unification of the Peshmerga have rarely seemed more remote.
The future of America's Middle East posture is now
With its strategic prioritization of the Indo-Pacific and European theatres, the United States has had to significantly adjust its defense posture in the Middle East through new concepts and procedures to safeguard collective security interests.
The result is at least the beginning of a more dynamic and flexible approach to military deployment in the US Central Command (CENTCOM)’s Area of Responsibility. Instead of emphasising large and permanent basing, the United States will surge assets and resources from other locations depending on threats and needs.
A defense treaty is not how Biden should fix the Saudi relationship
The United States has likely reached a crossroads in its relationship with Saudi Arabia. President Joe Biden can reconcile with Riyadh and use its influence to reshape the Middle East to Washington’s liking and stabilize the global energy markets. Or else the Saudis most probably will tie their fortunes much closer to China, thus complicating America’s top foreign-policy priority.
