Tunisian President Kais Saied’s campaign of arrests evolves from high-profile house arrests of leading figures to convictions of ordinary people on defamation charges.
Look to the people of the region first, then the evolving competition among regional states and global powers, for signs on what to expect.
While some of Saied’s rhetoric as well as his symbolic and legislative decisions may appear to some as revolutionary, the post-July 25 political system has thus far maintained continuity from both the pre- and post-revolutionary way in which the state governs: a top-down, policing approach with deference to — and reinforcement of — existing socio-economic hierarchies. In presiding over and perpetuating this system, whether with verve or reluctantly, Saied has become an ordinary politician, following in the footsteps of many others who have held positions of power.
The pace of military action in Syria has plateaued. With the assumption of a frozen conflict comes the attendant assumption that humanitarian conditions are also likely to be stable. This could not be further from the truth. Humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate, driven by three factors, and urgent action is now needed to avoid a famine.
North Africa has entered a food security crisis. Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco are witnessing food inflation levels not seen since the civil unrest of the Arab Spring a decade ago. Although the Maghreb’s current food crisis was precipitated by the local and global economic shocks brought on by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and its 2021 aftermath, the structural fragility of the food systems in Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco is responsible for severity of the problem. At the core of this fragility is the failure to implement adequate measures to address the impact of increased water scarcity and debilitating climate change.
Readmission of irregular migrants has been a critical element in migration cooperation between France and Maghreb countries. In an attempt to increase its leverage, France recently decided to toughen its stance on migrant return by linking it more tightly to the country’s visa policy.
Afghanistan’s economy is collapsing. The Taliban’s forceful seizure of power led to a curtailment of almost all foreign aid, a devastating development for a nation overwhelmingly dependent on international assistance. Widespread drought, pervasive corruption, the perennially inadequate use of the country’s human capital, and a population largely unvaccinated against COVID-19 have exacerbated this longstanding problem of foreign financial dependence.
In recent years, Israel has waged a campaign against the military buildup of its enemies, mainly Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. This ongoing effort is called “the campaign between the wars,” or the Mabam Campaign. Several events in recent weeks have given rise to questions about the effectiveness of this campaign, however, and have underscored the need to rethink its future.
Lilia Blaise and Fadil Aliriza join Intissar Fakir for a discussion on Tunisia’s political turmoil following President Kais Saied’s series of moves since July to reshape the country’s government.
كبير الباحثين ومدير برامج سوريا ومكافحة الإرهاب والتطرف
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
هذا المقال يأتي ضمن سلسلة من أربعة أجزاء نشرها معهد الشرق الأوسط بالتعاون مع الباروميتر العربي لتحليل نتائج الدورة السادسة من استطلاعات الباروميتر العربي.
On Oct. 4, MEI hosted a discussion with Dr. James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute and founder of Zogby Research Services (ZRS); Elizia Volkmann, a British freelance journalist based in Tunis; and Dr. Eya Jrad, researcher and assistant professor of security studies at the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research Tunisia. The conversation revolved around the findings of a ZRS survey of 1,551 Tunisians conducted between Aug. 15 and Sept. 5 covering their attitudes and optimism regarding the future.
هذا المقال يأتي ضمن سلسلة من أربعة أجزاء نشرها معهد الشرق الأوسط بالتعاون مع الباروميتر العربي لتحليل نتائج الدورة السادسة من استطلاعات الباروميتر العربي.
