Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Intense fighting between the SDF and ISIS continued for the fifth day in Syria’s northeastern city of al-Hasakeh on Monday, following ISIS’s biggest attack in Syria and Iraq in three years. In the evening of Jan. 20, as many as 200 ISIS militants, many wearing suicide belts, launched a coordinated multi-axis assault on al-Sina Prison, shortly after detonating two car bombs parked along the exterior walls of its northern wing. In the chaos that ensued, SDF vehicles were seized and used to break through secure walls, clearing the way for hundreds of ISIS detainees to escape.
In the past several months, Biden administration officials have been pushing back against an encroaching narrative that the United States has abandoned the Middle East. But deepening partnerships built on a shared threat are not enough to assuage the concerns of all valuable allies in the region given the increasing perceptions of U.S. unreliability. To address these concerns, the U.S. needs to identify positive nexuses across policy priorities as well. One ripe option in this frame is Lebanon, where the United States has a reliable and long-standing partner in the Lebanese Armed Forces.
In Iraqi folklore, Saturday is both an ominous and auspicious day. Iraqis say it is Awwad —“repetitive” — and hence they prefer to postpone taking important decisions to other days of the week. For many Iraqis this week, the news of Dr. Sinan al-Shabibi’s unfortunate passing on Saturday, Jan. 8 could not have come on a worse day. While the loss of one of Iraq’s last firmly independent voices, a respected economist and former central bank governor and someone who genuinely sought the country’s economic transformation, was ominous, in time the day may also become auspicious if his memory and legacy help to inspire a new generation of Iraqis to realize his aspirations for the country.
في 9 ديسمبر/كانون الأول، قال الجنرال الأمريكي المسؤول عن التحالف الدولي المناهض لتنظيم الدولة الإسلامية في العراق إن المهمة القتالية الأمريكية قد انتهت وأن القوات الأمريكية لن تقدم سوى المشورة والتدريب والمساعدة والاستخبارات لشركائها العراقيين. لن يغير التحول في الأدوار حجم القوة الأمريكية الصغيرة في العراق كثيرًا، لكن الجنرال فرانك ماكنزي، قائد القوات الأمريكية في الشرق الأوسط، قال في 9 ديسمبر/كانون الأول إن تواجد الناتو في مهمة المساعدة يجب أن يزيد.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed a number of weaknesses in government response, including a fragmentation of the decision-making process, inadequate consultation with experts, opacity of epidemiological data, as well as a lack of health care capacity, collective action, and general preparedness. Perhaps above all though, the pandemic has highlighted the inadequacy of communication with the public and their lack of involvement in the decision-making process. While the novel coronavirus caught all governments by surprise, some governments, especially those that enjoy high levels of trust (and not necessarily the wealthiest ones), have fared better than others. This has prompted some countries to hold public hearings to gain more insight into decision-making during the pandemic and rebuild trust in institutions. Strikingly but unsurprisingly, no country in the Arab world has yet called for a public inquiry into COVID-19. While this is even more relevant for countries that have traditionally enjoyed democratic governance and for countries that have suffered disproportionately rom the pandemic, this exercise could be useful for all Arab countries in regaining the trust needed to better respond to future crises.
أحدثت انتخابات 10 أكتوبر/تشرين الأول 2021 ثلاث تحولات استراتيجية رئيسية في العملية السياسية العراقية، والتي على الرغم من أنها لم تسفر بعد عن تغييرات جوهرية في عملية تشكيل الحكومة الحالية، إلا أنها تتمتع بإمكانية هائلة لإحداث المزيد من التغييرات الجوهرية في المستقبل. أولاً، تعرضت الفصائل الموالية لإيران عبر القوائم والأحزاب السياسية العراقية، سواء داخل الكتل الكردية أو السنية أو الشيعية، لخسارة ثقيلة. ثانيًا، فازت الأحزاب التي انبثقت عن الاحتجاجات الشعبية في أكتوبر/تشرين الأول 2019، “امتداد وإشراقات كانون”، بتسعة مقاعد وستة مقاعد على التوالي في منافستها الانتخابية الأولى.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Despite its reputation for relative political stability and economic prosperity compared with its neighbors, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) frequently experiences protests, driven by popular anger over the government’s unreliable provision of public services, especially water, electricity, and roads. These protests point to simmering dissatisfaction with governance in the KRI across broad swathes of the population. Although uncoordinated and localized at present, these protests have the potential to develop into a potent political force if they become better organized.
في بلد أخذ نصيبه العادل من العنف، نرى أن ما وقع في السابع من نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني، من محاولة لاغتيال لرئيس الوزراء مصطفى الكاظمي، والتي يعتقد المسؤولون الأمنيون العراقيون الآن أنها من صنع الميليشيات العراقية المدعومة من إيران، قد تجاوزت خطًا أحمر رئيسيًا. جاء هذا الهجوم بعد يومين من توجيه قادة مليشيات عصائب أهل الحق وكتائب حزب الله وقنواتهم الإعلامية المختلفة تهديدات ضد رئيس الوزراء ومسؤولين أمنيين آخرين.
Repeated crises in Lebanon, including the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted the need for resilience in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Amid the current acute economic and financial crisis facing the country, there are warning signs about the LAF’s incapacity to continue, as the resources at its disposal and popular confidence in its effectiveness have both been degraded. In light of the current challenges and those that may lie ahead, the LAF needs to become more resilient, able to both adapt and strengthen as an organization, while also ensuring public security, the conditions of its personnel, and its own long-term status.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Iraq’s Oct. 10 election may be more consequential than its immediate results suggest. Some of the subtle facts and dynamics surrounding the election point to interesting trends and possibilities, more so than the headline-grabbing expansion of Muqtada al-Sadr’s power in the Iraqi legislature, or the losses suffered by candidates representing Iran-backed militias.