Research & Commentary Results

MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj speaks with scholars Iulia-Sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas on Russia’s current standing in the Middle East a year since re-invading Ukraine. 

How has Russian aggression in Ukraine redrawn Moscow’s relationships in the MENA region? And as the Middle East increasingly becomes a key area of global great power competition, is Russia still a meaningful player there, politically, economically, militarily, and diplomatically?

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Amid international efforts to resurrect the fragile peace in Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthi militia is imposing stringent conditions for their return to the negotiating table, demanding that state payments of civil servant salaries also go to their militia members and loyalists through direct deposits, which would bolster both their forces and their transnational allies. While the need to compensate Yemeni civil servants is undeniable, the Houthis’ self-serving demands threaten to undermine any progress toward a lasting peace.

On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion, leading thinkers from Central and Eastern Europe examine the war’s impact.

The difficulty of quickly providing mechanized and armored equipment to Ukraine, training Ukraine to employ this equipment in combined arms operations, and ensuring Ukraine can maintain and sustain combat power should not be underestimated. As the examples of Turkey’s 2016 military operation in Syria and the U.S. operation in Fallujah in 2004 illustrate, dislodging Russia from its prepared defensive positions will be a daunting task for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Despite massive hydrocarbon reserves, Iraq struggles with chronic electricity shortages. There is a clear need to explore cleaner alternatives, such as renewable energy systems, yet the deployment and integration of these systems would be hindered by the same structural woes that have crippled the electricity sector, and which go far beyond generation issues.

Energy remains at the heart of the geopolitical chessboard. Despite recent advances in the development of renewable energy sources, their share in the energy mix remains limited as oil still meets most of the transportation sector’s needs. The development of renewable energies is not yet able to drastically change this reality.

After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. But then on Feb. 6 the worst happened: Turkey and Syria were hit by a pair of massive earthquakes, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and untold damage. How did Turkey’s economy stabilize in second-half 2022, what do we know about the economic impact of the earthquakes, and where might things be headed going forward?

As a condition of its $3 billion loan from the IMF, the Egyptian Central Bank confirmed its pledge to maintain a durably flexible exchange rate. The Egyptian pound quickly and sharply dropped, but economists are cautiously optimistic that Egypt can sustain the current crisis and repay its debts. The government is walking a tight rope, attempting to raise revenues and attract investments without exacerbating the tough living conditions at home.

With the acute impacts of US-Chinese global tech decoupling becoming clearer, MENA is slowly emerging as an important region to watch. Economic and geopolitical ties with the West have long dictated the shape of the region’s digital environment, but more recent great power competition and Middle Eastern countries’ pursuit of economic and technological sovereignty have slowly deconstructed these dynamics.

Key findings from the latest Arab Barometer survey, its seventh wave, reveal that, despite some political gains in several Arab states, clear majorities in the 12 countries in which the survey was conducted still hold traditional views on gender norms.

The lack of a nuclear deal with Iran, the risk of escalating tensions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the increasingly complex relationship with Turkey are just some of the thorny regional issues facing the European Union. A breakthrough on any of these three issues this year will be exceedingly difficult.

Azerbaijani-Iranian relations have been strained since Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 war with Armenia. However, the situation dramatically worsened in the last few months, with Iran holding two large-scale drills near the border with Azerbaijan and accusing Baku of colluding with its enemies and interfering in its internal affairs.

The issue of diversification is difficult but urgent, given increasingly tight global climate policies, the advances of non-fossil technologies, and the limited lifespan of the KRI’s oil resources. Harnessing the region’s natural gas productively is the first step to a cleaner and more diversified economy.

Facing the profound challenge of trying to diversify its energy supply while a destabilizing war rages on in Ukraine, Germany has looked to several Gulf monarchies to forge new energy partnerships. Notwithstanding heated domestic debates over controversial topics such as their human rights record, Berlin should consider a more comprehensive strategic approach toward the Gulf monarchies that encompasses issues beyond energy supply, such as joint efforts in regional integration and development.

Gulf states are collectively investing billions of dollars in developing renewable energy. Yet climate change patterns in neighboring regions, combined with rising average temperatures, could eventually trigger more serious climate migration problems for the Gulf countries themselves.