Research & Commentary Results

Last Sunday, the pandemic claimed the life of the most internationally prominent face of the Arab Spring in Libya. The tragic death of former Libyan Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril in a Cairo hospital, at just 68 years of age, is in fact a fitting metaphor for the many stillborn aspects of Libya’s attempted political rebirth.

Governments and citizens throughout North Africa are gearing up for a huge increase in coronavirus infections expected in late March, April, and May. Just next door, Italy and Spain are two of the five worst afflicted countries on the planet.

No part of the world will emerge unscathed from the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic of 2020. Just because China and Italy were the first to be severely hit, does not imply, that when all is said and done, that they will have sustained the brunt of the damage. North Africa is a region dependent on global commodities prices, tourism, and political and monetary support from Europe and the Gulf, where regime brittleness, youth unemployment, and Islamic radicalism all intersect.

From Morocco to Afghanistan, the scholars and experts at MEI take a closer look at how the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is affecting the Middle East.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait (“Gate of Tears” in Arabic) forms a vital strategic link in the maritime trade route between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. On one side of the narrow strait lies the Arabian Peninsula. On the other is the Horn of Africa, a fragile region that has been plagued for decades by high levels of violence and instability within and across borders, and which in recent years has served as a launching pad for terrorism, piracy, human trafficking, and smuggling operations.

Trump has taken such a forward-leaning and aggressive position now that he has set himself, and the U.S., in a conflict trap that he might not be able to defuse.

The UK’s impending exit from the EU will present a new chapter for British interests in and posture toward the region. If the UK is to find a trade-off for loss of diplomatic and economic heft, it will need to re-prioritize its engagement efforts. Policy continuity toward Morocco and Tunisia appears inevitable; Algeria, in contrast, promises great opportunity for an evolving relationship.

The 12-country Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), which held its latest meeting in Equatorial Guinea on Nov. 28, has never had OPEC’s ability to control energy prices, but that is likely to change as liquefied natural gas (LNG) transforms the gas market from a regional to a global one.  

Philanthropists Othman & Leila Benjelloun received the 2019 Middle East Institute Visionary Award at MEI’s 73rd Annual Awards Gala on November 12 in Washington, DC.

The Royal Institute for Strategic Studies (IRES), charged by the Government of Morocco with analyzing and monitoring the country’s external relations, turned its attention to the U.S.-Morocco relationship at a conference conducted at its Rabat headquarters on Oct. 29. Taking note of the long history of the bilateral relationship — Morocco was one of the first countries in the world to recognize the new American republic in 1777 — panelists reviewed the current state of political, economic, and cultural engagement between the two nations.

A reliable supply of freshwater is a prerequisite for sustainable socioeconomic development, as well as for sociopolitical stability and human prosperity, especially in semi-arid and arid regions of the world. The Middle East and North Africa’s freshwater resources are under immense pressures and are facing significant risks to their sustainability due to overexploitation, climate change, and interstate competition over their use that extends beyond the region’s boundaries.

It is easy to overlook the fact that food security could be an issue of concern in the Gulf Cooperation Council. After all, its member states have some of the world’s highest per capita income levels. Food supplies in the Gulf are normally abundant and stable. Were they to be disrupted, however, it could lead to food security challenges and a chain of adverse consequences for human security throughout the region.

The alliance between Morocco and Saudi Arabia has historically been strong, bolstered by shared concerns about regional turmoil in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring protests, but recent tensions have brought bilateral relations to an all-time low. Last month, frictions between Rabat and Riyadh came to the fore when Morocco recalled its ambassador from Saudi Arabia.

When this month’s EU-Arab League Summit in Egypt was announced last September, the issue of African migration to Europe topped the agenda. Other high-priority issues have since been added — such as solving five regional conflicts and addressing security, trade, and multilateralism — but migration remains the highest priority for a Europe still reeling from the 2015 migrant crisis.

The most recent EU summit, in June 2018, only proved that the EU’s member states do not share any common long-term perspective on migration from Middle East to Europe. This lack of cohesion, as well as a lack of substantial cooperation with the U.S., are the best recipe for a humanitarian disaster in 2019.