Research & Commentary Results

Since 2015, Yemen’s largest governorate, Hadramawt, has been informally divided between two distinct centers of power with different military loyalties and external backing. The balance of power within the governorate is no longer fixed, however. Changes in Hadramawt’s military, political, and economic dynamics are reshaping power networks in the governorate and beyond, with implications for the conflicting agendas of the Saudis, Emiratis, and Houthis.

In a 1994 article for Foreign Affairs, former US national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski famously argued that “without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire.” His analysis is no less valid today.

At the time, Brzezinski was arguing against the United States pressuring Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons. It seems reasonable to say that there would be no war in Ukraine today if the country had not done so under the terms of the flawed Budapest Memorandum.

لم يكن تمرد مجموعات فاغنر العسكرية على الحكومة الروسية ووزارة الدفاع وقادتها العسكريين مفاجئاً، خاصة في الفترة الأخيرة من الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية مع الظهور المستمر لزعيم تلك القوات يفغيني بريغوجين، الذي تكرر ظهوره خلال الأشهر الماضية منتفداً تارة ومهدداً تارةً أخرى للقادة العسكريين الروس، بسبب ما قال إنه نقص في الذخيرة والمعدات المقدمة لقواته على جبهات أوكرانية وخاصة باخموت، ما تسبب بمقتل العشرات من قواته على مدار الفترة الماضية.

The conflict between the Wagner Group and the Russian government was not born out of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, though the war there caused the rift to widen and tensions to explode publicly in the form of an armed rebellion. Instead, the discord actually started in Syria back in 2017 and has intensified since then.

The South Caucasus region needs a clear push from the West to ensure its long-term stability and achieve a pro-Western orientation. But no lasting solutions in this space will be possible until there is an end to the war in Ukraine that fulfills the interests of both Ukraine itself and the broader West. The United States and the European Union, in cooperation with other key players — foremost Turkey — must showcase greater determination, flexibility, and coordination when it comes to their policies toward the region.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Over the past few weeks, the US State Department and the US Defense Department released separate but similar statements about the changes each organization has instituted to the Foreign Military Sales, or FMS, process. There are 80 recommendations coming out of the Pentagon, but in short, they all advocate for less bureaucracy and more speed.

For the sake of safeguarding transatlantic — and thus also American — security interests in the South Caucasus, it is becoming increasingly imperative that the United States better anchor itself economically, politically, and militarily in the eastern Black Sea region, especially strategically placed Georgia.

Saudi leaders have stepped up their plans for developing peaceful nuclear energy, inviting technical bids to the planned construction of two 1.4 gigawatt-electric nuclear reactors and restating the kingdom’s intention to use domestic uranium resources for producing low-enriched uranium as nuclear fuel.

It is too early to tell whether the Wagner “uprising” is a one-off or foreshadows further cracks and the eventual collapse of Putin’s presidency, but the latter outcome would have lasting consequences in the MENA region.

Last week’s collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in Ukraine is one of the largest environmental disaster the Black Sea region and Europe has faced in decades. Its far-reaching environmental, economic, and humanitarian consequences will affect not just Ukraine and the Black Sea region, but also the Middle East and Africa.

In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program provide their views on what reforms to the U.S. Foreign Military Sales process could or should accomplish and how an improved approach to approving foreign arms sales can strengthen U.S. relations with international partners and allies.

It is not difficult to see why US officials view China’s increasing influence in the Middle East with greater concern.

Through investments, trade, arms sales, and lately diplomacy, China has patiently built a strategic sphere of influence in the region that is only going to grow and more seriously challenge America’s regional position and interests.

But will China set off alarm bells in Washington and attempt to solidify its regional clout by establishing a permanent military presence in the region?

Even though Russia and China’s strategic partnership has strengthened in recent years, the leaderships of both countries infrequently engage on Middle East affairs. Russia views China’s growing diplomatic assertiveness in the Middle East as a positive step toward a multipolar regional order. Nevertheless, Russia is trying to avoid being completely eclipsed by China as a prospective conflict arbiter. While the two countries concur on opposing unilateral sanctions and democratic uprisings in the Middle East, Beijing does not universally approve of Moscow’s positions on regional crises and its power projection strategy.

The “Axis of Resistance,” a network of non-state actors aligned with Iran, has emerged as a significant force in the Middle East in the last two decades. Despite the attention given to the more well-known members of the Axis of Resistance, the Azerbaijani group Hoseyniyun, which also operates within the network, remains relatively unknown.