Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
On March 12, the United States Department of the Treasury sanctioned four individuals for supporting the Iran-linked al-Ashtar Brigades in Bahrain. This US announcement might suggest that Iranian-Bahraini relations are about to take a nose-dive. But in reality, that is unlikely to happen — at least not while Iranian-Saudi détente continues.
The results of the March 1 election for Iran’s Assembly of Experts hold great importance for understanding how the regime is preparing for the selection of the next supreme leader. The major responsibility of this 88-member body is to designate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s successor, either after his death or if he becomes incapable of fulfilling his responsibilities.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
In discussions on Iran’s future in a post-Khamenei era, one crucial player in the transition to a new supreme leader is often overlooked: the inner circle surrounding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, primarily operating within the framework of the Office of the Supreme Leader.
This article breaks down five key takeaways from the February 2024 survey conducted by Stasis Consulting ahead of Iran’s upcoming March 1 parliamentary elections.
Findings from the latest survey on Iran from Stasis Consulting: Turnout in the March 1 parliamentary election is expected to be a record low of 34%, the majority of Iranians disapprove of President Raisi’s job performance as well as that of the parliament (65% and 61%, respectively), and in a hypothetical face-off between President Raisi and former FM Zarif, Mr. Raisi wins out 30% to 16%.
Over the centuries, Iran and Turkey have engaged in an ebbing and flowing, but continual, rivalry for regional influence and supremacy. Yet such potentially escalatory dynamics have not been limited to geopolitical competition by proxy; they have also spilled over into efforts to meddle in each other’s internal affairs.
Elections in the Islamic Republic are highly restricted and engineered to produce the veneer of political representation. And yet, there is significant symbolism around heightened absurdities of holding elections in Iran that the vast opposition to the Islamist rule could have utilized if it had any gameplan.
In mid-January, with the war in Gaza continuing to rage on, Iran launched a series of surprise missile attacks on its immediate neighbors Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan over two days. Taken together, these attacks illustrate that the Islamic Republic puts regime survival above national interest in its foreign policy calculations, which undermines its efforts to engender solidarity and good relations with other Muslim-majority states in the region.
The IRGC and the clerical establishment are Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s most significant instruments of power. This piece explores the relative influence of these two entities throughout the Khamenei era and beyond, with a particular focus on the potential changes that might occur to their position and standing after the conclusion of his leadership.
Houthi rhetoric focusing on Palestine underscores the militia’s strategic alliance with Tehran as part of the “Axis of Resistance.” This relationship, central to understanding the Houthi movement’s actions and narratives, frames its position within the larger geopolitical contest in the Middle East.
On this week’s episode, MEI Iran Program Director Alex Vatanka, MEI Non-resident Scholar Andrew Scott Cooper, and MEI Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discuss the Iranian Revolution of 1979. A seminal event in the history of the modern Middle East, the revolution transformed Iran and its impact continues to reverberate across the region today, nearly five decades on.
Few events in our lifetime are as shrouded in myth and conspiracy as the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Forty-five years later, however, we now have a much clearer picture of the dramatic events that played out on the streets of Tehran before a worldwide television audience.
On the evening of Saturday, Feb. 3, local time, US warplanes bombed facilities used by Iranian forces and Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq, in retaliation for the death of 3 US service members in a Jan. 28 drone attack on Tower 22, a US military base in northeastern Jordan on the Syrian border. The airstrikes primarily targeted locations in eastern Syria and western Iraq.