The war in Gaza as a major test of China’s Middle East peace diplomacy
China has long sought to brand itself as a “neutral” player and force for peace in the Middle East and elsewhere, willing and able to talk to “all sides.” Beijing’s nascent ambition to play the role of peacemaker and its potential to shape regional events was on display when it succeeded last March in brokering the détente between Riyadh and Tehran. The Israel-Hamas war offers no such low-hanging fruit. On the contrary, it poses a major test of China’s Middle East peace diplomacy — and an opportunity to examine some of our own, perhaps faulty assumptions.
As the war rages on between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the role of Iran will remain a central factor. Tehran is not only Israel’s top regional foe but also the leading provider of military aid and training for Hamas. But what is its endgame? As with all stakeholders in this war, Tehran’s calculations are evolving and shaped by events on the ground in Gaza.
An Israeli ground assault on Gaza requires an endgame
Though it has mobilized 360,000 reservists, the highest number since its 1982 invasion of Lebanon, in pursuing a large-scale ground invasion of Gaza Israel risks unprecedentedly high casualties of its own and massive condemnation by both the Arab world and the West if Palestinian deaths, already reported as exceeding 3,000, rise to multiples of that figure.
With Russia’s future uncertain, Turkey and the West need each other
Prigozhin’s coup was a serious warning sign that should prompt Turkey to cool ties with Russia and rebuild its relationship with the West. Yet today, Turkey and the West look at each other in terms of problems not solutions. While the political risks of reengagement are high for both sides, the potential rewards are well worth the effort needed to overcome them.
Israel-Hamas war: Conflict scenarios, US diplomacy, and shoring up regional stability
Nine days after the Hamas attack inside Israel, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is massing troops for a large-scale ground incursion into Gaza. For now, the outlines and endgame of Israel’s military action are not entirely clear. Meanwhile, escalation is rising along the Israel-Lebanon border and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is crisscrossing the Middle East communicating both deterrence and diplomacy.
Dehumanization, lack of empathy for Palestinians is alarming—and dangerous
The scale and brutality of Hamas’s grisly attack on Israel last Saturday has understandably triggered a massive outpouring of sympathy and solidarity with Israel. And yet, there has been no similar outpouring of sympathy for Palestinians, who are now also dying in disturbingly large numbers.
As Israel-Hamas war begins, it’s not too late to shape this historic inflection point
Hamas’ murderous raid on Oct. 7, resulting in the deaths of more than 1,300 Israelis, mostly civilians, may well turn out to be a consequential inflection point, having unleashed political and popular forces that could lead in a positive or, just as likely, extremely negative direction.
Turkish escalation in northeastern Syria amid changes in military strategy
After several quiet months on the Turkish-Syrian border, tensions have escalated in recent days. Turkish forces have intensified their attacks against the SDF in northeastern Syria and targeted PKK hideouts along the Turkish-Iraqi border. This escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of the suicide blast in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, on Oct. 1 that targeted the Interior Ministry.
In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program provide their views on the Oct. 7 Hamas surprise attack on Israel and what it might mean for Israelis and Palestinians, the wider region, and U.S. policy.
Understanding the legal drama in Israel: Will the Supreme Court prevent a constitutional crisis?
After a year of unprecedented events, Israel’s political and constitutional turmoil came to a head on Sept. 12, when the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a critical case that will determine the future of the Netanyahu government’s judicial overhaul. The arguments concern the so-called Reasonableness Amendment, passed by Israel’s parliament in late July; this amendment to the country’s Basic Laws would partially strip the Supreme Court of its authority to review governmental acts.
Treading Cautiously on Shifting Sands: An Assessment of Biden’s Middle East Policy Approach, 2021-2023
This report provides an interim assessment of the Biden administration’s overall Middle East strategy and examines the strategic opportunities and risks for U.S. policy in the broader region.
Iran’s unification of the arenas campaign against Israel: Foundations and prospects
As Israel faces a relentless, unprecedentedly severe political crisis at home, in the regional theater Iran has amplified its anti-Israeli activities, undermining the efforts Israel undertook during 2020-22 to build up a common security front with neighboring Arab states against Tehran as well as to intensify various military operations against Iranian interests.
