Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
As the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan grows increasingly dire, Pakistan has informed India that it will allow the transportation of wheat and life-saving medicines from India to Afghanistan through its territory, on the condition that only Afghan trucks are used to carry it. The Taliban regime has praised Pakistan for the move, but will it arrest the decline in India’s fortunes in Afghanistan?
عقب استقالة وزير المالية واستبداله بأحد الموالين للرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان في الثاني من ديسمبر/كانون الأول، واصلت الليرة التركية تراجعها المطرد أمام الدولار، لتصل خسائرها خلال العام إلى قرابة 50٪. من جديد تقع العملة التركية تحت وابل من المضاربات، على غرار الحلقات السابقة في يوليو/تموز 2018 وأكتوبر/تشرين
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Following the resignation of the finance minister and his replacement by a loyalist on Dec. 2, the Turkish lira continued its steady decline against the dollar, bringing its losses for the year to nearly 50%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s early cuts to the policy rate since September have resulted in an exodus of foreign capital and a rush in demand for foreign exchange among domestic investors.
While the international community has adopted a “wait-and-see” attitude toward the Afghan Taliban, Tajikistan has taken a sharply critical view. Rhetoric between Tajikistan and the Taliban is increasingly bitter, a symptom of a broader problem in their bilateral ties. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon has condemned the Taliban regime in Kabul for failing to form an inclusive government and for violating human rights in the Panjshir Valley. The Taliban have responded by warning Tajikistan not to interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.
Since the hasty American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, refugees have flowed out of the country and its domestic problems have grown increasingly dire due to the lack of effective governance and much-needed funding. Neighboring countries Iran, Pakistan, and China, along with other regional states and the U.S., now all face a dilemma as to how to stabilize the rapidly deteriorating internal situation. Further efforts must be made to address the growing economic and humanitarian crisis, especially before the onset of winter, although the nature and scope of these efforts are likely to be shaped by the broader competition between Washington and Beijing.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
During his recent visit to Tbilisi, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin poured cold water on the idea of American support for a so-called “3+3 format” in the South Caucasus. When asked about the proposal, he said, “I would just say that Russia, which currently occupies 20% of Georgia’s territory, should focus on honoring its 2008 cease-fire commitments before promoting any new discussion platforms.”
Marvin Weinbaum and Javid Ahmad discuss conditions in Afghanistan since falling back under Taliban rule, including worsening economic and humanitarian crises, the security situation, the role of international and regional actors, and where things might be headed moving forward.
In September, China and Pakistan convened the tenth session of their joint coordination committee that oversees the CPEC — the largest of the BRI corridors. The long-anticipated meeting ultimately yielded no major breakthroughs. The momentum of CPEC appears to be losing steam once again, but for Pakistan, slower may actually be better.
Afghanistan’s economy is collapsing. The Taliban’s forceful seizure of power led to a curtailment of almost all foreign aid, a devastating development for a nation overwhelmingly dependent on international assistance. Widespread drought, pervasive corruption, the perennially inadequate use of the country’s human capital, and a population largely unvaccinated against COVID-19 have exacerbated this longstanding problem of foreign financial dependence.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Turkey’s official policy supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia, and it sells UAVs and ships to Ukraine. Yet, trade continues with the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and Crimea. By allowing this illegal trade, Turkey undermines both its own credibility and its trading partners’ security. Shipped goods not only help connect occupied zones to Russia, but trade also brings hard currency into these zones, which are outside the international banking system.
Turkey, like many countries worldwide, has recently faced severe environmental events. Suffering from floods and the worst wildfires in its history in the summer of 2021, the country finally took an important step to tackle climate change, ratifying the Paris Agreement international treaty on climate change on Oct. 6, 2021.