Research & Commentary Results

The following analysis provides an overview of Poland’s and Romania’s engagement with NATO priorities on its eastern front line since 2022 and outlines their advocacy for increased regional security in multilateral formats. Drawing on the expertise of over two dozen Polish and Romanian security experts, it offers recommendations for an enhanced CEE security strategy for the United States, the leading member of the NATO alliance.

Russia’s malign behavior in the Black Sea includes piracy, plunder, petroleum price cap violations, and actions to prevent the free transit of foreign commercial and naval vessels. Its largely unchallenged position in the Black Sea also helps Russia maintain access to foreign-made products and components, circumventing sanctions. The West and the broader international community have yet to act to decisively rein in these flagrant violations of international laws and norms.

On this week’s episode, MEI’s Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discusses the Biden administration’s push to reach a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel with Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Saab. 

While there are plenty of potential hurdles to reaching a deal — including Saudi Arabia’s steep demands, Israel’s far-right government, and challenging domestic politics here in the US — if done right, the potential geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.

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Last week saw a flurry of diplomatic activity between Baghdad and Ankara. The top priorities in the talks were oil exports, the presence of the PKK in Iraq, and Iraq’s water crisis. The outcomes have been unimpressive, but there is an opportunity for Iraq to shake things up and improve its bargaining position, at least on the oil export issue, possibly more.

As the Wagner Group has an entrenched military presence in Syria, Libya, and Sudan, the evisceration of its senior leadership will have serious repercussions for Russia’s influence in the MENA region. Wagner’s military contractors are unlikely to depart, since they guard strategically valuable oil and mining facilities; but they are likely to now be swiftly integrated into the regular Russian Armed Forces.

In a move of unprecedented geopolitical consequence, the Brics grouping of nations has made the landmark decision to expand beyond its five founding members. Announced on Thursday at the conclusion of the Brics summit in Johannesburg, host South Africa along with Brazil, Russia, India and China invited six nations to join the bloc – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Argentina.

The recent military coup in Niger marks the point of no return for the unraveling of France’s dominant economic and military influence across West Africa. Turkey is the foreign actor that stands to benefit most, with the potential to emerge as a leading strategic partner for the nations of the region. Turkey’s engagement with West Africa is a unique, dual approach that blends military and economic engagement while deftly intertwining humanitarian aid and cultural outreach.

After the conclusion of the 16-month rule of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), the appointment of a new caretaker government has created uncertainty. This raises doubts about whether Pakistan will smoothly transition to another democratic government or if the caretaker setup will exceed its constitutional mandate.

Of all the challenges to Saudi Vision 2030, arguably none is greater than Iran’s threat to Saudi national security. To succeed, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman must protect the kingdom, which will require not only fortifying its defenses against further Iranian and Houthi attacks but also establishing a level of deterrence against Tehran.

As the world shifts toward a more sustainable future, the GCC states are also embracing this profound transition, moving from oil wells to power cells. With their vast resources, strategic location, and commitment to sustainability, the Gulf countries are uniquely positioned to become major players in the global battery supply chain. By embracing the potential of battery technology, these nations are not just preparing for a post-oil future but are actively shaping it.

It has been nearly 70 years since Israel first asked the U.S. to sign a bilateral defense treaty. Ever since then, the idea of a formal security agreement has resurfaced from time to time, only to be struck down, due to an understanding that it does not serve the two sides’ actual needs. Prime Minister Netanyahu is currently floating the idea once again, but the U.S. can make use of his interest in a security upgrade to revive a different idea instead: the decade-old security plan for the two-state solution, known as the Allen Plan.

Lebanon needs a new aid strategy to preserve the country’s ability to one day recover. What is required is a donor strategy that walks on two legs: a first leg that offers a big reconstruction push conditioned on economic and institutional reforms and, in parallel, a second leg that provides urgent support to the Lebanese population.

A brutal heat wave tormenting Egypt since mid-July, resulting in lengthy and repeated power cuts, has turned into a political liability for President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi ahead of his expected campaign to run for a third, six-year term early next year.

Efforts to reform the Iraqi Kurdish security forces known as the Peshmerga are at serious risk of failing. Tensions between the ruling parties of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region are not new, but the working relationship between the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has collapsed over the past year. As a result, officials within the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs are no longer capable of preventing the politics of partisan self-interest from consuming the reform project. The prospects for the depoliticization and unification of the Peshmerga have rarely seemed more remote.

Syria’s dramatic readmission into the Arab League in May was perceived as a turning point for the country’s fortunes. Although Damascus may have come in from the cold diplomatically, there has been little change on the economic front, where the situation remains dire. Since the start of May, the Syrian pound has lost over 70% of its value and shows no sign of stabilizing.