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We need a new “Big Stick” policy for Iran
Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • We need a new “Big Stick” policy for Iran

    President Theodore Roosevelt said, “Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.”1 Roosevelt used the image of the big stick to popularize his philosophy, but he offered a subtler interpretation in other venues. It represented a quiet threat that would only rarely need to be used if accompanied by steady diplomacy.

    Qatar doubles down on LNG amid energy market volatility
    Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Qatar doubles down on LNG amid energy market volatility

    The oil and gas sector has been the dominant driver of Qatar’s economy. Over the years, although that sector has remained the major focus of Qatari investments, the emphasis has increasingly shifted towards the expansion of the country’s gas production and LNG export capacity. While the construction boom ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup powered the Qatari economy in recent years, income generated by the expansion of the country’s LNG production and export capacity is likely to drive the economy for many years to come — both despite and partly because of the market turmoil caused by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

    How to Advance US-Saudi Defense Cooperation
  • Commentary
  • How to Advance US-Saudi Defense Cooperation

    Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it wants a defense pact with the United States in return for normalizing ties with Israel. However, that isn’t a price Washington is able or willing to accept, for both political and strategic reasons. But the conversation about improved U.S.-Saudi defense cooperation shouldn’t stop here. There’s plenty of room for achieving that objective without having to upgrade the relationship to a full-fledged alliance.

    China and the Saudi-Iran rapprochement: Implications for Yemen
    Photo by MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • China and the Saudi-Iran rapprochement: Implications for Yemen

    The conclusion of the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian détente on March 10, which aims to thaw long-standing enmity and manage competition between the two regional arch rivals, has multi-layered implications for Yemen.

    April 5, 2023

    The long Ukraine war: It’s time to transition to a more rational military assistance paradigm
    Photo by Oz Suguitan, U.S. Transportation Command
  • Analysis
  • The long Ukraine war: It’s time to transition to a more rational military assistance paradigm

    Ukraine’s partners, led by the United States and spread over the globe, have increasingly responded to Russia’s full-scale invasion of February 2022 with a dizzying array of financial, humanitarian, and military assistance. Unfortunately, the way in which the U.S. and Ukraine’s other partners have provided military assistance over the last year — that is, by delivering a wide range of equipment, ammunition, and training — significantly undermines the longer-term objective of developing a sustainable system via which Ukraine can generate combat power in the coming years to overcome Russian aggression.

    April 4, 2023

    Can the West Stop Russian-Iranian Convergence?
    Photo by YURI KOCHETKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Can the West Stop Russian-Iranian Convergence?

    More than a year on from the beginning of the Ukraine war in February 2022, there is no more business as usual for Russia-Iran relations. While bilateral ties are still characterized by an intense focus on security and defense, the two sides are opening multiple new areas of cooperation as well. But what has motivated Moscow and Tehran to invest in strengthening their bilateral relations given all the potential risks and costs? Could conflicts of interest and competition put a crack in this burgeoning relationship? And what can the West do about it?

    April 3, 2023

    The credibility of American deterrence in the Middle East
  • Commentary
  • The credibility of American deterrence in the Middle East

    I don’t think enough attention has been paid to US Central Command Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla’s public testimony on 23 March, in which he said that Iran-backed militias have attacked American troops in Syria 78 times since January 2021.

    A day after Kurilla spoke, local fighters allied with Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards launched another attack with drones, killing a US contractor and wounding six other American service members.

    April 3, 2023

    Israel and Azerbaijan: Trusted friends and reliable partners
    Photo by Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) / Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Israel and Azerbaijan: Trusted friends and reliable partners

    Israeli-Azerbaijani relations are based on two main pillars: patient and cordial political relations as well as defense cooperation and arms sales. While the former reached a more intensive level this year, with the opening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv in late March, the latter pillar of the relationship was well developed long before, as Israel became Azerbaijan’s largest weapons supplier.

    April 3, 2023

    Assessing US Assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces
    Photo by Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • Assessing US Assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces

    In January 2023, the United States began to reroute $72 million of assistance to Lebanon to support the salaries of Lebanese soldiers and police officers, most of whom could barely make ends meet due to the disastrous economic situation in the country. It took Washington more than two years to make that decision, partly because US laws regarding this type of aid were slightly unclear. But more importantly, the voices inside and outside the US government who argued against further support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), let alone direct cash assistance, succeeded in delaying the process. This was yet another example of how, despite continued US commitment to the LAF through successive administrations, the US military assistance program remains vulnerable to US domestic politics.https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-lebanon-bu…

    March 30, 2023

    Arab women break boundaries and stereotypes in Middle Eastern militaries
    Photo by Laughlin Air Force Base
  • Commentary
  • Arab women break boundaries and stereotypes in Middle Eastern militaries

    As Women’s History Month in the U.S. draws to a close, women in the armed forces of several Middle Eastern countries continue to achieve historic milestones, with many now serving as pilots, engineers, peacekeepers, and in special forces units. The role of women is steadily increasing as the result of new initiatives, policies, and gradually changing mindsets in the Middle East.

    March 28, 2023

    Missed opportunities: The billions sacrificed annually to generate electricity in the GCC
    Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Missed opportunities: The billions sacrificed annually to generate electricity in the GCC

    The GCC governments still cover over 40% of the cost of domestic electricity production. Yet, electricity subsidy bills alone do not reflect the full extent of their economic losses. Once the forgone revenues from the export of natural gas and oil used to meet rising domestic energy demand are added in, the total economic cost of the GCC’s electricity is too great to ignore.

    March 27, 2023