Leading a Resilient Lebanese Armed Forces Through Crises and for the Long Run
Repeated crises in Lebanon, including the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted the need for resilience in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Amid the current acute economic and financial crisis facing the country, there are warning signs about the LAF’s incapacity to continue, as the resources at its disposal and popular confidence in its effectiveness have both been degraded. In light of the current challenges and those that may lie ahead, the LAF needs to become more resilient, able to both adapt and strengthen as an organization, while also ensuring public security, the conditions of its personnel, and its own long-term status.
The 3+3 format in the South Caucasus doesn’t add up
During his recent visit to Tbilisi, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin poured cold water on the idea of American support for a so-called “3+3 format” in the South Caucasus. When asked about the proposal, he said, “I would just say that Russia, which currently occupies 20% of Georgia’s territory, should focus on honoring its 2008 cease-fire commitments before promoting any new discussion platforms.”
A storm brews over the Black Sea: Turkey’s contradictory maritime policy
Turkey’s official policy supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia, and it sells UAVs and ships to Ukraine. Yet, trade continues with the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and Crimea. By allowing this illegal trade, Turkey undermines both its own credibility and its trading partners’ security. Shipped goods not only help connect occupied zones to Russia, but trade also brings hard currency into these zones, which are outside the international banking system.
Turkey finally ratified the Paris Agreement. Why now?
Turkey, like many countries worldwide, has recently faced severe environmental events. Suffering from floods and the worst wildfires in its history in the summer of 2021, the country finally took an important step to tackle climate change, ratifying the Paris Agreement international treaty on climate change on Oct. 6, 2021.
Why Hezbollah wanted the Ministries of Finance and Public Works
After 13 months of political gridlock, economic collapse, and civil unrest, Lebanese politicians formed a new government on Sept. 10. Three-time Prime Minister Najib Mikati heads a new cabinet, the first since the previous one resigned in the wake of Beirut’s devastating port blast in August 2020. Though the formation of a new government provides a way forward to address the myriad crises facing the country, it falls far short of the near-revolutionary changes demanded by Lebanese citizens protesting in the streets. Instead of non-partisan specialists forming a new unity government, Lebanon’s notorious sectarian elites have handpicked a government of technocrats close to them to handle the current situation, the most brazen of which are the new ministers of finance and public works.
Has Israel’s campaign between the wars reached an impasse?
In recent years, Israel has waged a campaign against the military buildup of its enemies, mainly Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. This ongoing effort is called “the campaign between the wars,” or the Mabam Campaign. Several events in recent weeks have given rise to questions about the effectiveness of this campaign, however, and have underscored the need to rethink its future.
لقاء بايدن في البيت الأبيض مع البطريرك المسكوني يوفر فرصة فريدة
سيزور برثلماوس الأول، البطريرك المسكوني للقسطنطينية والزعيم الروحي لما يقرب من 300 مليون مسيحي أرثوذكسي على مستوى العالم، الولايات المتحدة بين 23 أكتوبر/تشرين الأول و3 نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني. وسيعلن بدء الاحتفال بالذكرى المئوية لتأسيس أبرشية الروم الأرثوذكس بأمريكا في زيارته الأولى للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية منذ 12 عامًا. ستكون المحطة الأولى للبطريرك المسكوني هي واشنطن العاصمة، حيث من المقرر أن يلتقي بالرئيس جو بايدن في البيت الأبيض.
Far from a benefactor, the Turkish government is exploiting Somalia’s fragility
A decade has passed since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan landed in Mogadishu at the height of one of Somalia’s worst famines, announcing grandiose projects like the launch of Turkish Airlines flights to the Somali capital, the remodeling of a hospital, and the opening of the biggest embassy in Africa, all designed to show that Turkey’s mission goes well beyond aid and that Ankara is an alternative to Somalia’s traditional donors. Erdoğan’s historic visit earned him high praise throughout Somalia. Although his trip appeared to be a heartfelt humanitarian mission, in reality it was part of a long-term, strategically planned effort. A decade on, Somalis are starting to realize that Turkey has evolved from friend to foe, trade partner to trade protectionist, state builder to outright spoiler.
Biden’s White House meeting with the Ecumenical Patriarch offers a unique opportunity
Bartholomew I, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople and spiritual leader of nearly 300 million Orthodox Christians globally, will visit the United States between Oct. 23 and Nov. 3. He will inaugurate the centennial celebration of the founding of the Greek-Orthodox Archdiocese of America in his first U.S. visit in 12 years. The Ecumenical Patriarch’s first stop will be Washington, DC, where he is due to meet with President Joe Biden at the White House. This in-person meeting provides the Biden administration a unique opportunity not only to raise human rights and religious freedom issues in Turkey but also to push back against Russian attempts to undermine the Ecumenical Patriarchate, which the Kremlin sees as a threat and targets with disinformation campaigns.
The perils of personalizing power: Erdoğan’s one-man rule has made him increasingly vulnerable
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan long believed that establishing one-man rule would end all his headaches. Instead, the system he created has only caused him more trouble. So great is Erdoğan’s remorse that he is now said to be thinking of amending the executive presidency to strengthen the role of parliament.
Memories of the Lebanese civil war resurfaced this week as images appeared of children hiding in hallways and behind cars while deadly sectarian clashes unfolded outside their schools in Beirut’s Tayouneh neighborhood. Protests organized by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement to demand the removal of the judge investigating the August 2020 Beirut port blast quickly went south when as yet unidentified snipers opened fire on the crowds, eventually killing seven and wounding dozens. The “peaceful” protesters seemingly retaliated with gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades. The two sides turned Tayouneh and its surrounding areas into a war zone, terrorizing citizens and destroying property at a time of unprecedented socio-economic hardship.
توقّفت شبكة الكهرباء اللبنانية عن العمل نهاية الأسبوع الماضي مع نفاذ الوقود في محطتي الطاقة الرئيسيتين في البلاد. توفر هاتان المحطتان، الزهراني ودير عمار، 45٪ من كهرباء لبنان من مؤسسة كهرباء لبنان المملوكة للدولة. التوقُّف هو الأحدث في سلسلة من الانقطاعات المتزايدة للشبكة واستخدام الحكومة للضغط العام لتقديم مزيد من المدفوعات المُسبَقة أو السُلف للمرفق المفلس ليتمكن من دفع ثمن واردات الوقود، وبالتالي الإبقاء على الوضع الراهن المستمر منذ 30 عامًا.
What’s driving Turkey’s early easing of monetary policy?
At its Sept. 23 meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), in a surprise move, cut its policy rate (1-week repo rate) 100 basis points to 18.00%, while headline inflation was 19.25% (currently 19.58%). This is an interesting development as most central banks around the world have just started preparing to implement tighter policies.
