Hamas Has Already Lost. Now, Who Will Win the Peace?
The events that began in Israel on Oct. 7 are a historical hinge. Like 9/11, as has been said, 10/7 will be remembered by most observers as a bright dividing line between “before” and “after.” What’s at stake for Israel—a fight for its survival—has echoes in other battles taking place around the world like Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Iranian regime’s continued repression of its own people. The world keeps moving toward the future, but the past and those retrograde elements that want to move the world backward still want to have a say.
Nagorno Karabakh offers the US a chance to make new friends and weaken old enemies
The latest war over Nagorno Karabakh lasted a single day, ending on Sept. 20. It is the third war over the region disputed between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the last three and a half decades.
But this time, it seems there was really only one party to the conflict. Armenia stayed out, leaving it to the Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh to surrender.
A hundred thousand people have fled to Armenia, roughly 80 percent of the Karabakh population. What’s more, Armenia’s most powerful allies, Iran and Russia, appear to be distracted and marginally engaged.
Treading Cautiously on Shifting Sands: An Assessment of Biden’s Middle East Policy Approach, 2021-2023
This report provides an interim assessment of the Biden administration’s overall Middle East strategy and examines the strategic opportunities and risks for U.S. policy in the broader region.
NATO membership for Ukraine: The only lasting deterrence against future Russian aggression
As important as it is for Ukraine to work with individual partners and receive their long-term support, the key security guarantor for Ukraine can only be NATO and its Article V umbrella. No arrangement other than full NATO membership will entirely remove the threat of a Russian re-invasion, at least so long as Putin remains in power.
Understanding Moldova’s ethnic dynamics: Minority rights, external influence, and pathways to unity
Moldova is a country with a rich tapestry of multiple ethnic identities and linguistic traditions, but one where policymakers have long grappled with the complexities of preserving minority rights, fostering national unity, and addressing regional autonomy through engagement with the Gagauz minority.
What do China’s economic woes mean for the Middle East?
At the start of 2023, optimism was high that China would see a rapid recovery in consumer spending and an acceleration in GDP growth. Since then, however, the world’s second-largest economy has been in the doldrums. China’s ailing economy is a problem not just for China but for the entire world. A prolonged slowdown or a sudden financial crash, were it to occur, would ripple across global markets — including the countries of the Middle East, whose economies have become increasingly intertwined with that of China.
Navigating development in Moldova: The role and challenges of foreign donor organizations
This study on community leadership and social resilience factors in Moldova in the context of the war in Ukraine is based on in-country interviews with 15 Moldovan experts and community leaders, conducted in May-August 2023.
Deepening defense-industrial cooperation on NATO’s eastern flank
The war in Ukraine has turned policymakers’ eyes back toward the Euro-Atlantic arena and highlighted the need to reinvigorate NATO’s defense-industrial base. This analysis describes the macro policy environment that shapes the current relationship between Romania and the United States, and considers what steps the U.S. could take to improve Romania’s integration with the Euro-Atlantic defense-industrial base.
Polish and Romanian responses to Russian aggression: Lessons for a US CEE Strategy
The following analysis provides an overview of Poland’s and Romania’s engagement with NATO priorities on its eastern front line since 2022 and outlines their advocacy for increased regional security in multilateral formats. Drawing on the expertise of over two dozen Polish and Romanian security experts, it offers recommendations for an enhanced CEE security strategy for the United States, the leading member of the NATO alliance.
Russia’s aggressive behavior in the Black Sea can be challenged
Russia’s malign behavior in the Black Sea includes piracy, plunder, petroleum price cap violations, and actions to prevent the free transit of foreign commercial and naval vessels. Its largely unchallenged position in the Black Sea also helps Russia maintain access to foreign-made products and components, circumventing sanctions. The West and the broader international community have yet to act to decisively rein in these flagrant violations of international laws and norms.
