Bytes and Beltways: Decoding Beijing’s Tech-Centric Geopolitics in the Gulf
As China pursues a grand strategy aimed at displacing the US-led global order, technology has emerged as a fourth pillar alongside the political, military, and economic elements of its plans. A test case is the Arabian Gulf. Since the 2010s, China has been strategically enhancing its influence in West Asia, with a particular focus on the Gulf states, leveraging technology as a potent tool. This approach involves the deployment of Chinese software and hardware, coupled with joint technology and cyber initiatives.
Hezbollah’s calculations on opening a second front against Israel
Since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, regional and extra-regional actors have been working to prevent an expansion of the conflict beyond the Gaza-Israel theater, focusing particularly on the Lebanese-Israeli border. A decision by Hezbollah to enter the ongoing war would open a second front and bring into the fight their large arsenal of rockets and precision-guided missiles capable of hitting critical Israeli infrastructure. It would also bring destruction to Lebanon while the country reels from a severe economic crisis.
Israel-Hamas war: Conflict scenarios, US diplomacy, and shoring up regional stability
Nine days after the Hamas attack inside Israel, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is massing troops for a large-scale ground incursion into Gaza. For now, the outlines and endgame of Israel’s military action are not entirely clear. Meanwhile, escalation is rising along the Israel-Lebanon border and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is crisscrossing the Middle East communicating both deterrence and diplomacy.
Hamas Has Already Lost. Now, Who Will Win the Peace?
The events that began in Israel on Oct. 7 are a historical hinge. Like 9/11, as has been said, 10/7 will be remembered by most observers as a bright dividing line between “before” and “after.” What’s at stake for Israel—a fight for its survival—has echoes in other battles taking place around the world like Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Iranian regime’s continued repression of its own people. The world keeps moving toward the future, but the past and those retrograde elements that want to move the world backward still want to have a say.
The US Cyber Workforce and Education Strategy: A blueprint for building cyber talent in the Gulf
In July 2023, the White House released the National Cyber Workforce and Education Strategy. The strategy is designed to address the cybersecurity workforce shortage by emphasizing skills-based hiring and lifelong learning. It also provides guidance for other nations, particularly in the Gulf region, as they undergo their own digital transformation and work toward gender equality in their workforces.
Treading Cautiously on Shifting Sands: An Assessment of Biden’s Middle East Policy Approach, 2021-2023
This report provides an interim assessment of the Biden administration’s overall Middle East strategy and examines the strategic opportunities and risks for U.S. policy in the broader region.
Enhancing US-EU collaboration in MENA's digital development
Both the U.S. and the EU are increasingly focusing on digital development in the Middle East and North Africa as part of their efforts to support economic growth and tackle the region’s youth unemployment crisis. Deeper transatlantic cooperation in this field would greatly benefit both sides and drive forward digital development in the region.
Just over one year ago, I asked a simple question in The National Interest: What if machine learning—the most famous research paradigm in artificial intelligence (AI) today—is more limited than it seems? I expressed concern that the United States Department of Defense (DoD) could be unprepared for a slowdown or stagnation in AI development (an AI “winter”).
