Research & Commentary Results

The Biden administration will face a number of major challenges in the Middle East over the next four years, from great power competition and climate change to cybersecurity and refugees and migration. But what realistically can it achieve in that time on the policy front? To better understand what’s possible, we asked 10 experts from across MEI to weigh in with their thoughts.

In April 2020, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appointed an independent Reflection Group with the aim of defining the future of the Alliance. The group recently published an extensive report entitled NATO 2030: United for a New Era.” However, NATO 2030: United for a New Era does not provide further detail or recommendations on how these partnerships should be strengthened and expanded. The Alliance must strengthen and consolidate its partnership with Georgia to ensure its sovereignty and independence and mitigate the risks of further Russia aggression imposed.

Many Americans find the whole swath of territory in eastern Europe, near Russia, very far away and hard to conceptualize. This part of the world involves a number of countries, small and large, that are generally not the most frequently discussed in American news nor frequented by American tourists. To make sense of much of this remote region, it can be helpful to take a perspective that centers on the Black Sea and views that body of water as the key point of reference for much of the region. Doing so not only helps clarify what Russia is up to in its near-abroad, but also shines a spotlight on Chinese activity, and what is required of America in response.

In our final episode of the year, host Alistair Taylor interviews several MEI scholars on the key events that transpired across the Middle East in 2020 including in Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan, and they discuss US defense and diplomatic strategy in region as the as the transition to the Biden administration gets underway. Guests include Paul Salem, Bilal Saab, Randa Slim, and Marvin Weinbaum.

There is a lot riding on the success of the recent cease-fire agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. NATO’s energy security is now intertwined with the fragile deal. Fueled by Russian arms and military training, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict threatens to shake confidence in Europe’s drive to reduce its energy reliance on Moscow.  

Therefore, this holiday season – dear reader – might I suggest a return to the essentials? The greater Middle East is the birthplace of Christianity, Judaism, and wine. This year, why not return to basics with some Georgian wine at the holiday table? Wine is central to Judeo-Christian rituals. It is a requirement for the Eucharist – as well as for Shabbat and Passover. A more secular property of wine is its ability to encapsulate a sense of place and epitomize the traditions of a culture.

Less widely reported are other offshore discoveries in the Black Sea being made by various regional players, some more overtly than others. Given the not insignificant hurdles posed by limitations of technical capacity, a bounty of market supply, and unresolved conflicts leaving borders and exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in question, many are asking who’s campaigning for new Black Sea gas, and why? And just as importantly, whose national security interests stand best to gain?

We are moving toward a new status-quo in the South Caucasus, with different actors facing different challenges as well as opportunities. Georgia will be impacted by the outcome of the war in multiple ways, and the country will need a strategy to adapt to the new realities, taking into consideration gains and losses of the parties actively involved in the conflict, as well as post-conflict development.

Romania is one of Eastern Europe’s largest countries. It also happens to be — alongside Poland — one of Europe’s most pro-Western electorates. However, results of Sunday’s legislative elections suggest Romania could once again be entering murky political waters.

The Black Sea region is home to some of America’s strongest allies and most vocal advocates of continued Euro-Atlantic cooperation and integration. The Trump Administration’s commitment to the region has led with U.S. support for regional security. It is in America’s national interest to double down on the successes of the Trump Administration’s regional economic engagement strategy, and establish trade and investment initiatives as the forefront of U.S. policy toward the Black Sea region.

On November 14, the Transadriatic Pipeline (TAP) commenced operation. It is difficult to overstate the significance of this development. The new transit link running from Greece’s border with Turkey all the way to Italy, via a 878-stretch that also crosses Albania and the Adriatic Sea, makes the much-discussed Southern Gas Corridor a reality. It brings an annual 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from the Shah Deniz offshore field in the Caspian to consumers in the EU and the Western Balkans, helps diversify supplies away from Russia, and enhances Azerbaijan’s position on European markets.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Alex Vatanka, Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, and Dr. Marwa Maziad.

The Russian government has spent more than a decade constructing a multilateral security structure for the former Soviet space—the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Yet, despite the occurrence this year of some of the most serious crises in Russia’s neighboring former Soviet republics, the CSTO has been notable for its absence in the Kremlin’s response.

Recent presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova were won by Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), a party advocating for judicial and anti-corruption reform and for rapprochement with the European Union (EU). Sandu becomes the first female president of Europe’s poorest country, securing 57.7 percent of the vote ahead of incumbent Igor Dodon’s 42.2 percent. The result followed an unprecedented election campaign during which verbal violence was widely witnessed.

The recent ceasefire agreement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia halted the armed phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict following 45 days of fighting and thousands of military and civilian lives lost on both sides. Russian peacekeepers have already been deployed to the conflict zone to oversee implementation of the agreement. It now remains to be seen whether they will be joined by Turkish counterparts, either in the field or at a joint monitoring center in Azerbaijan. The latter is the first disagreement between Moscow and Ankara over peacekeeping in the region.