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The Libyan Banking Sector: A Microcosm of Global Enduring Disorder
Photo by MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP via Getty Images.
  • Analysis
  • The Libyan Banking Sector: A Microcosm of Global Enduring Disorder

    This paper investigates the ongoing Libya conflict through the Enduring Disorder paradigm, focusing on the financial and banking sectors, honing in on stakeholder perceptions of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), its transparency/opacity, and the “narrative wars” over who is to blame for, and who benefits from, Libya’s economic dysfunction, the lack of an annual budget, and the current lack of a quorum on the CBL board.

    March 13, 2023

    Algeria’s 2023 budget: President Tebboune’s make-or-break first-term project
    Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Algeria’s 2023 budget: President Tebboune’s make-or-break first-term project

    On Dec. 25, 2022, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune signed the 2023 budget bill into law. The new finance law lays out unprecedented government spending of $98 billion, the largest state budget in Algeria’s history and a 25% increase from 2022 levels. It also provides clear insight into the authorities’ vision for the future and potential scenarios for Algeria’s direction on the economy and international relations.

    March 8, 2023

    Aqaba agreement overshadowed by spiking violence in the West Bank
    Photo by Matan Golan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Aqaba agreement overshadowed by spiking violence in the West Bank

    It was described as a “significant breakthrough” by a Jordanian official, while Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said the agreement would ‘’de-escalate violence” if implemented, but just as the details of the one-day security meeting in Aqaba, on Feb. 26, were being announced, it became apparent once more that a rare attempt to bring Israeli and Palestinian officials together, in a bid to contain a spike in violence that was quickly getting out of control, was ill-fated.

    March 2, 2023

    The German "Zeitenwende" still goes unnoticed in Israel
    Photo by Bernd von Jutrczenka/picture alliance via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • The German "Zeitenwende" still goes unnoticed in Israel

    Although Germany and Israel maintain a close partnership, the German “Zeitenwende” has not yet been perceived there. Dr. Nimrod Goren outlines a German-Israeli partnership oriented towards democracy and peace.

    March 1, 2023

    Democratic pessimism in Tunisia
    Photo by Yassine Gaidi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Democratic pessimism in Tunisia

    Tunisia’s current system of government is by all indicators continuing to move even farther away from a liberal democratic form envisioned in the 2014 constitution. This is particularly true in the post-July 25, 2021 period after President Kais Saied suspended parliament and assumed full executive and legislative powers. However, analyses that focus solely on Saied miss some of the broader social and political trends that were already rejecting the way Tunisia’s post-2011 “democratic transition” has unfolded. They also miss the nexus that has converged to maintain the current system, in particular between security forces, some sycophantic media, and key figures within the political, business, and civil service sectors.

    February 28, 2023

    Algeria, Morocco and Western Sahara: Why Tension, Not Conflict, Has Become the Norm
  • Commentary
  • Algeria, Morocco and Western Sahara: Why Tension, Not Conflict, Has Become the Norm

    During an interview on 29 December with the French daily Le Figaro, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune declared that his country had cut ties with Morocco in the summer of 2021 to “avoid war.”[i] Tebboune’s comments reflected just how far relations had deteriorated, and that avoiding conflict required a strong response. Hence, the diplomatic break of August 2021. What has resulted in this bilateral nadir?

    Why security cooperation with Israel is a lose-lose for Abbas
  • Commentary
  • Why security cooperation with Israel is a lose-lose for Abbas

    West Bank coordination is vital to Mahmoud Abbas’s and the Palestinian Authority’s survival. It’s also hugely unpopular among ordinary Palestinians.

    February 7, 2023

    The Middle East in an era of great tech competition
    Photo by KARIM SAHIB/AFP
  • Analysis
  • The Middle East in an era of great tech competition

    With the acute impacts of US-Chinese global tech decoupling becoming clearer, MENA is slowly emerging as an important region to watch. Economic and geopolitical ties with the West have long dictated the shape of the region’s digital environment, but more recent great power competition and Middle Eastern countries’ pursuit of economic and technological sovereignty have slowly deconstructed these dynamics.

    Politics and Civic Engagement in North Africa: Present Trends and Future Outlook
  • Commentary
  • Politics and Civic Engagement in North Africa: Present Trends and Future Outlook

    In the North Africa and Middle East region, there is a battle for citizenship currently lurking behind the façade of a reemerging authoritarianism. Indeed, in most cases, the revolutions and transitions that spread across North Africa and the Middle East since 2011 have crystalized into resurgent authoritarian regimes that target freedoms and liberties and reverse political openings, while still contending with the economic and governance crises. But this is only one layer.

    The Biden administration is missing Netanyahu’s transparent game of destructive leveraging
    Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The Biden administration is missing Netanyahu’s transparent game of destructive leveraging

    Netanyahu is skillfully building a set of menacing tools, mechanisms, capabilities, and policies that create a credible threat to the current order. Today, he is executing this strategy to achieve success on three key issues: annihilating the Oslo Accords and the two-state solution, curbing Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and carrying out what is effectively regime change in Israel. The U.S. must swiftly and decisively confront and foil Netanyahu’s destructive leverage vectors or else it will find itself on the wrong side of history on some or all of these three critical fronts.