Building a More Resilient Bahrain: An Integrated Approach to Climate Change, Socioeconomic, and Governance Challenges
From extreme heat and drought to dust storms and rising sea levels, the Kingdom of Bahrain is facing the growing impact of climate change, with projections indicating conditions will only get worse in the future. Manama’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change directly intersects with its broader societal and governance issues, necessitating comprehensive climate-resilience strategies to address these interconnected challenges.
Debunking the role of cloud seeding in the April Arabian Gulf floods
Intense flooding across the Arabian Peninsula caused by a storm in mid-April sparked speculation about the role cloud seeding might have played in the precipitation event, giving rise to conspiracy theories on social media and warnings trumpeting the hazards of human intervention into natural processes. Cloud seeding is not the only climate change-adaptive strategy to have been targeted in this way, and the effort being expended to combat such disinformation (though nascent) is growing.
Post-disaster reconstruction: Tackling water security in Derna after Storm Daniel
Storm Daniel struck Libya on Sept. 10, 2023. The northeastern coast of the country was the hardest hit by the storm, especially the city of Derna. The storm generated strong winds and heavy rains that led to massive flooding throughout the city, washing away entire residential neighborhoods. The death toll from the floods was staggering, estimated in the thousands.
China, the US, and the battle for Middle Eastern technology
The US is changing its approach to dealing with China’s technology statecraft in the Middle East. The recent Microsoft-G42 deal offers a new model for technology competition that helps to secure American technologies while accommodating its partners’ aspirations.
The US and China in the Middle East: Three scenarios for 2050
The Middle East and North Africa is likely to be one of many venues in what might be a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. Barın Kayaoğlu and Steven Kenney explore factors shaping the role of MENA countries in US-China competition in the region and map out potential future scenarios.
Circus of Parties: The COP is broken but it is the only show in town
COP28 was billed as our last best chance to get the world’s act together and save our chances of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, the final outcome fell far short of the commitments so desperately needed to keep the target alive. The future of COP lies in refocusing on its fundamental objective: ensuring that countries are held accountable to science-based targets that prioritize the needs of vulnerable communities most affected by climate change.
Saudi-Houthi Agreement: Four Scenarios and Their Potential Impact
Less than 10 years after seizing power in Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to evolve — and so do the threats emanating from it. After several years of negotiations, it now seems likely that the Houthis and Saudis will reach a peace agreement, and it is worth considering how such a deal could change the group’s trajectory. This report examines a number of possible futures that could develop in Yemen over the next 1-2 years based on shifting capabilities, interests, and alliances.
COP28 introduced peace and conflict into the climate discussion. What comes next?
At the COP28 in Dubai last December, 74 countries, organizations, and multinational development banks officially linked climate change and conflict for the first time in the conference’s history by signing the Declaration on Relief, Recovery, and Peace. This declaration recognizes that countries affected by conflict and fragility are significantly more vulnerable to the effects of climate change and calls for the scaling up of climate finance to help them better prepare for and respond to climate impacts
Strategic foresight is helping create Arab futures
On March 5-7, 2024, the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) hosted the annual Arab Forum for Sustainable Development (AFSD). The inclusion of a special session on “Collaborative Futures: Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Development in a World of Crisis” is another example of the growing attention to foresight-driven analysis and decision-making among leaders in the Arab world.
Pillars of sand: The environmental fragility of Gulf cities
Future climate change is set to increase temperatures around the Gulf further still, rising twice as fast as the global average and pushing the cities of this rapidly growing region toward the edge of their viability as human habitats. But how did this situation come to be in the first place, and why did humans settle in such an inhospitable environment and build such cities around the Gulf waters?
The great financing gap: The state of climate funding in MENA
The Middle East and North Africa region is one of the lowest recipients of climate finance compared to other areas of the globe, such as East Asia and the Pacific Islands, despite MENA’s exposure to extreme climate risks. The MENA region’s share of climate financing from the big three global climate funds — the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) — and their sub-funds made up only 6.6% of their cumulative global financing through 2023.
