The diplomatic ice is breaking in the Gulf. What does that mean for the region?
The announcements in mid-August that both the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait will be returning their ambassadors to Tehran after six years provided the latest indication that the diplomatic ice has started to break in the Gulf region.
Syrian foreign policy in the Caucasus and Ukraine: An unbalanced, Russia-centered approach
The embattled Syrian regime’s need to preserve Russian military and political support has compelled Damascus to adopt the Kremlin line in its foreign policy positions toward the former Soviet space.
Trump Didn’t Kill the Carter Doctrine—It Was Born Dead
The United States and its Gulf Arab partners need a new security arrangement that effectively shares the burden of defending against Iranian hostility and goes beyond deterrence.
Iran-Venezuela relations: Presidents, postures, and pressures
In June, Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year road map on cooperation. As much as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has wanted to differentiate himself from his predecessor, his Venezuela policy has so far closely resembled that of Hassan Rouhani during the latter’s second term.
Europe's efforts to hold Iranian officials accountable for their crimes
There is currently an ongoing conversation in Europe around how to hold the Iranian government accountable for its crimes. While efforts to bring justice to the regime’s victims continue, the road ahead will be difficult and as the recent Swedish and Belgian cases make clear, sometimes it will be one step forward and one step back.
Despite official hype of a “strategic partnership,” Iranian public is skeptical of Russia
The Iranian government has invested heavily in trying to sway public attitudes to embrace closer relations with Russia; but a plurality of Iranians would like to see balanced ties with all nations and for Tehran to pursue a mature, pragmatic overseas agenda.
In July 1987, Iran lost the opportunity to end the Iran-Iraq war as part of a U.N. deal by imposing two preconditions, one of which was impossible to meet. In 2022, Iran is likely to lose another opportunity, this time to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, once again by imposing two preconditions, one of which is also impossible to meet.
Why the Russian ambassador is such a controversial figure in Tehran
Despite Russia and Iran’s apparently tightening relationship, Russian Ambassador Levan Dzhagaryan has come under withering criticism in Tehran, becoming a reminder of the interventionist and imperialist policies that Russia had practiced toward its southern neighbor over the past two and a half centuries.
When he declared his presidential candidacy in May 2021, Ebrahim Raisi was already recognized as a favorite of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A month later, Raisi was handed the job on a silver platter of an election that was carefully engineered by Khamenei. Voter turnout hit a historical low, making clear that Iranian voters saw the sham for what it was. From the get-go, then, Raisi’s primary concern was not Iranian public opinion but Khamenei’s continued patronage.
Erdoğan in Tehran, but Turkey and Iran have plenty of mistrust to overcome
Iranian-Turkish trade and economic cooperation has been the all-important platform on which otherwise often tense bilateral relations could survive. With trade and economic ties now weakening, their geopolitical rivalry could sharply re-intensify.
Putin’s visit to the Islamic Republic: Bringing Iran closer to Russia while building long-term leverage over Tehran
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s July 19 visit to Tehran will have important repercussions for the region’s evolving security environment as well as the trajectory of Iranian-Russian relations more specifically. Although officially billed as seeking to revive the “Astana peace process” on Syria, the significance of the trip has less to do with the trilateral meeting between Iran, Russia, and Turkey and more with the deepening of ties between Moscow and Tehran.
Israel’s new Iran strategy complicates regional security
The decades-long confrontation between Israel and Iran is now arguably becoming more dangerous. Amid a lack of consensus among Israeli leaders on how to address this perceived existential threat, calls for applying greater pressure are gaining momentum. The two countries have been engaged in a shadow war for years that includes assassinations, sabotage, kidnappings, and cyber operations, but a new phase of tensions may only bring them closer to a full-scale conflict.
