Research & Commentary Results

Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) is the U.S. military’s name for the international intervention to defeat ISIS in Syria and Iraq starting in 2014. While OIR has been a success, it has necessarily been imperfect. Throughout the campaign, cost-benefit calculations made by policymakers led to missed opportunities and possibly a longer conflict. These decisions will have lasting repercussions that could undermine the hard-won victory against ISIS, as well as the ability to partner in future interventions. In particular, the United States mishandled its partner relationships in the war to defeat ISIS. Political considerations apparently won out against supporting and sustaining the SDF, our military partner forces.

The Middle East Institute and the American Task Force on Lebanon (ATFL) have collaborated with the Lebanese International Finance Executives (LIFE) to produce an urgent Lebanon-focused policy brief. The brief outlines recommendations to the Biden Administration for empowering an international coalition to support the Lebanese people and strengthen their capability to promote real change.

The northern Syrian governorate of Raqqa came to the world’s attention when it fell under the control of ISIS in 2014. Scenes of tribal leaders pledging allegiance to the group, after their governorate fell into its hands, raised many questions about the complex tribal dynamics in the area. Previous analyses of these dynamics have often misunderstood the intricate tribal structure and drawn false links between terrorism and tribalism. This research tool aims to shed light on Raqqa’s tribal structure, making it accessible to everyone interested in understanding the current state of affairs in the governorate.

Ten years ago this week, at the American embassy in Damascus, we heard of the first anti-government protest through a quiet whisper in the diplomatic community. A few young kids had run through the historic Hamadiya market yelling “freedom,” as everyone else in the Syrian capital was glued to their television, watching the Arab Spring unfold in nearby states.

Out of ill-will and incompetence, Lebanese decision-makers continue to violate macroeconomics’ most fundamental principles in their handling of Lebanon’s financial meltdown. Erroneous — or worse still, inexistent — fiscal and monetary policy choices are amplifying by the day the devastating socioeconomic repercussions that the country will face for years, if not decades, to come.

As Syrians mark the 10-year anniversary of the 2011 uprising this week, it remains inescapably true that the country’s debilitating crisis is far from over. After a decade of conflict that was initiated and driven by an utterly ruthless regime and reinforced and diplomatically protected by its Russian and Iranian allies, Syria is broken.

It has been more than a month since the launch of military operations by Syrian regime forces and their allies, with air support from the Russian air force, in the Syrian Badia — the country’s expansive central desert region — in an attempt to eliminate ISIS cells deployed there. To date, however, these operations have not yielded any tangible results.

مضى قرابة الشهر على العمليات العسكرية التي تشنها قوات النظام السوري وحلفائها، بدعم جوي من الطيران الروسي في البادية السورية، في محاولة للقضاء على خلايا تنظيم “داعش” المنتشرة في تلك المناطق، لكن تلك الهجمات لم تُثمر عن نتائج تذكر حتى اللحظة.

الهجمات العسكرية للقوات المعادية للتنظيم لم تتغير على الصعيدين العملياتي والاستراتيجي، فقد اقتصرت على عمليات توغل لقوات برية بأسلحة خفيفة ومتوسطة، بغطاء جوي من طائرات حربية روسية تُمهد بعمليات قصف جوي، وطائرات مروحية مرافقة للقوات المتقدمة برياً تحسباً لهجمات التنظيم الدفاعية.

As the Syrian conflict reaches its 10-year anniversary, the economic consequences of a decade of war have been nothing less than catastrophic. Instability and inflation are likely to remain major problems over next 10 years — and possibly well beyond — but for now they have created a new level of despair in government-held areas. The Syrian economy has entered its most fragile phase yet and the prospects of a serious recovery remain all but a distant hope as the fiscal challenges confronting the country far outweigh the meagre remedies on offer.

In a new policy briefing book, entitled The Biden Administration and the Middle East: Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward, MEI scholars tackle a large number of country-specific and region-wide issue areas, laying out both the abiding U.S. interests and specific recommendations for Biden administration policies that can further U.S. interests amid a region in turmoil.

يستضيف إبراهيم الأصيل في هذه الحلقة مدير برنامج في معهد الشرق الأوسط كريس أبي نصايف للحديث عن إطلاق برنامج لبنان ومناقشة آخر التطورات في لبنان والدور الدولي المحتمل. — Ibrahim Al-Assil Chris Abi Nassif

March 8 marks International Women’s Day and this year’s theme is “Women in Leadership: Achieving an Equal Future in a COVID-19 World.” However, refugee women and girls in Lebanon remain far behind the aspirations of the U.N.’s theme. This difficult situation is unlikely to change unless Lebanon ends its discriminatory policies toward refugees.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Sahar Khamis, Sabina Henneberg, Karam Shaar, and Ibrahim Jalal join host Alistair Taylor to examine the legacy and impact of the Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria ten years after the uprisings began.

The Lebanese Hezbollah has long been one of the Middle East’s most dangerous actors, and it has deeply embedded itself in Lebanon’s political system and economy. The Middle East Institute’s Bilal Saab details the different relationships the group has with various Lebanese constituencies and explains why some might begin to fray in the months to come.