A military strike on Iran is the worst non-proliferation strategy
Debates on a military solution to Iran’s nuclear program are heavily polarized between those arguing that a threat of war and a preventive non-proliferation military strike can be a solution and those arguing that military action will only accelerate Iran’s nuclear program. The truth is that it is highly unlikely that Tehran would abandon its nuclear program after a military strike.
The right war fought the wrong way: Reflecting on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan
The initial success in Afghanistan was achieved with a limited number of forces from the CIA, the U.S. military (especially special operations), and our partners in the Northern Alliance. In the opinion of many military experts and historians, it was a model for how to conduct a large-scale military operation with limited casualties and expenditure of resources.
Desalination in Libya: Challenges and opportunities
For the MENA region, groundwater is a hidden but significant problem, as many countries extract more than is being recharged and most lack solid legal frameworks and national water policy regulations to determine use. As a result, there are questions and concerns about the current status of groundwater aquifers, especially with the increasing impact of climate change, as well as the type of sustainable alternative solutions that could assist in conserving them. Libya is no exception to this broader regional trend, and the country suffers from growing water scarcity.
Is the Black Sea European? The European Union is still hesitating
Last week, one day before the European Council, the sixth Eastern Partnership summit took place. For weeks, questions about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine have been asked around the world. But the Eastern Partnership summit declaration, signed by Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, includes no mention of Russia. The Partnership appears hesitant to commit to more security (or integration), perhaps because some members were hoping for a greater European Union commitment to Black Sea security.
What were the most significant developments in the Middle East and regional policy in 2021? MEI’s Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Bilal Saab, and Karen Young join the program to discuss the key events and what trends to watch in 2022.
Exploring the feasibility of the Jordan-Israel energy and water deal
On Nov. 22, the Dubai Expo hosted an event where the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan, and Israel signed a cooperation agreement that would broker an exchange of renewable energy and water between Jordan and Israel. The signing of the agreement between the respective minsters of the three countries took place in the presence of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, who played a role in getting the deal done.
Amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine, the issue of Georgia’s path to NATO membership is once again in the spotlight. While Tbilisi has made real progress in its military reform efforts, the major hurdle is political, not military, in nature and until the Alliance can achieve consensus, the future of Georgia’s relationship with NATO will remain uncertain.
Diplomacy Is the Key to Reducing US Forces in the Mideast
U.S. military posture is a perfect example of the interdependence between defense strategy and foreign policy. Defense professionals in the Pentagon can come up with the best ideas for where and how the United States should station its troops and military assets overseas, but without the necessary U.S. diplomacy to secure security agreements or understandings with global allies and partners, those concepts will not be implementable.
Bilal Saab, senior fellow and founding director of MEI’s Defense & Security Program, discusses the recently completed Defense Department Global Posture Review (GPR), his thoughts on the review and process, and how it will impact the U.S. strategy in the Middle East.
The existential challenge of Jordan’s unquenchable thirst
Jordan is facing an existential challenge and it has nothing to do with the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the war in neighboring Syria, or the threat of militant Islamists. The challenge is climate change, which is responsible for poor rainy seasons over the past few years. The situation has become so bad that in the past few weeks the government admitted that six of the kingdom’s 14 active dams have now completely dried up, exacerbating endemic shortages of water used for drinking, irrigation, and industry.
Mohammed Mahmoud, director of MEI’s Climate and Water Program, and Abbey Krulik, who attended the recent United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, as an observer, discuss takeaways from the conference and the Glasgow Pact that was signed there.
The EU’s Strategic Compass: Preparing to navigate MENA “with less US”
After almost two years of work, the first draft of the EU’s so-called Strategic Compass was presented on Nov. 15. The objective of this military strategic plan is to agree on a set of proposals to guide the bloc’s defense cooperation efforts for the next five to ten years. Previous attempts at seriously bolstering Europe’s defense ambitions have often been half-hearted, but this time could be different because Europe feels genuinely threatened.
