Research & Commentary Results

The March 31st local elections in Turkey were a breath of fresh air for those long resigned to the fact that the ballot box doesn’t matter anymore and that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was invincible. To the surprise of many, the opposition captured all of Turkey’s major cities, but the decision by the Supreme Election Council on May 6th to nullify the results of the Istanbul mayoral election and call for a new vote quickly changed the mood. The election is now set to be rerun on June 23rd.

Building up Turkey’s defense industry has long been a priority for the government, and it has made considerable progress. Turkey is now the world’s 14th largest defense exporter. Despite its success to date, the industry is facing growing pains, and challenges like brain drain, a currency crisis, dependence on foreign suppliers, and regional political disputes could hamper growth going forward.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Robert S. Ford, Jonathan M. Winer, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the sabotage this weekend of four ships off the coast of the UAE, the recent escalation of fighting in northwestern Syria, efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Libya, and mounting concerns about Turkey’s economic health.

The recent arrest in Turkey of two suspects accused of spying for the United Arab Emirates highlights the growing divide between the two countries. Although the original cause of the rift – diverging views of the Muslim Brotherhood – has become less relevant in recent years, the enmity between the two nations endures.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Ruba Husari, Guney Yildiz, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and John Calabrese provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the failure of the twelfth rounds of Syria peace talks in Astana, negotiations over Yemen’s strategic port of Hodeida, a new report on Iraq’s oil production potential, ongoing US-Turkey talks about a buffer zone in Syria, Egypt’s recently passed constitutional amendments, and Beijing’s second Belt and Road Forum.

Former US Ambassador to Turkey W. Robert Pearson and Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss Turkey’s March local elections, in which the long-ruling AK party faced significant setbacks, and where Turkey’s economic challenges and strained foreign relations stand today.

Jordan’s King Abdullah is mobilizing his people ahead of the expected June unveiling of President Donald Trump’s much touted Middle East peace plan. Since returning from a working visit to Washington in March, King Abdullah has been unusually vociferous in his defense of his position on the fate of East Jerusalem and his rejection of any plan that would undermine Jordan’s stability.

Iran’s huge hydrocarbons reserves and Turkey’s growing demand for oil and gas seem to suggest great potential for energy collaboration. US sanctions and pricing disputes, however, limit and complicate the prospects of such a partnership.

The Eurasianist (Ulusalcı in Turkish) ideology, which originated from the far-left movement in Turkey, espouses an anti-Western approach in foreign policy and ultranationalist sentiment in domestic politics. They contend that Turkey’s interests lie outside the Western world and that Turkey should join the Russia- and China-led “anti-imperialist” camp. This article examines the rise, shortcomings and failures of the Eurasianist approach in Turkish foreign policy.

According to SIPRI’s recently published annual report, Russia’s share of global arms exports shrank by around one-fifth over the last decade, falling from 27 percent to 21 percent, while the U.S. share increased from 30 percent to 36 percent, widening the gap between the two major arms exporters. As Russia looks to reverse this decline, it is focusing on the Middle East, the world’s second-largest and fastest-growing arms market, as a way to boost its exports.

25 years ago, Turkish Islamists’ march to power began in the country’s capital, Ankara, and its largest city, Istanbul, when the ruling Justice and Development Party’s predecessor, the Welfare Party, captured the two municipalities. The loss of these cities in Sunday’s local elections could well mark the beginning of their descent.

Ali Çarkoğlu, professor of international relations at Koç University in Istanbul, Sinan Ciddi, executive director of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Georgetown University, and MEI’s Gonul Tol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss Turkey’s March 31 local elections amid mounting economic problems and political polarization.

Turkey’s municipal elections are in fact not local but a national referendum on the continued rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With his complete domination of every aspect of Turkey’s politics and media, as well as military, judicial, and educational institutions, it would be foolish to underestimate his ability to emerge a winner on March 31.

On March 7 President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Turkey’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 missile defense system is irrevocable. His remarks underlined Turkey’s strategic decision to turn away from NATO as a genuine partnership.

This analysis explains how the Salafi-Jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has legally justified its relations with Turkey. Although HTS was careful to avoid direct military collaboration with Turkey, it welcomed the Turkish Army’s presence as an additional force against the Syrian regime and secular opposition groups. This caused a significant rift among the group’s supporters and the al-Qaeda community, who accused HTS of thwarting its own jihad by forming relations with Turkey, considered by Salafi-Jihadists to be an apostate.