After Oil-for-Security: A Blueprint for Resetting US-Saudi Security Relations
Although U.S.-Saudi bilateral ties are on the mend, ambiguities and the transactional nature of the 1945 oil-for-security covenant contribute to mistrust and tensions. The burden of fixing or stabilizing the relationship is a shared responsibility. It’s time for Washington and Riyadh to reconfigure their security ties in accordance with new U.S. geopolitical priorities and new Saudi defense requirements. This report lays out such a process.
Saudi-Houthi talks could pave the way for intra-Yemeni ones, but will they ensure sustainable peace?
A Saudi-Houthi agreement now looks increasingly likely, but it is highly doubtful that such a deal by itself will end the multi-layered war or build a sustainable peace.
A message to Tehran: What drone attacks on Iranian critical infrastructure tell us
For the first time in several months, Iranian critical military infrastructure again came under attack from an unknown assailant. The Jan. 28 drone attack on a Ministry of Defense workshop complex appeared designed to deliver a politico-strategic message. The strike may mark the beginning of a more unstable post-JCPOA security environment in the Middle East characterized by a return of deterrence and risk-taking behavior.
Saudi Arabia’s proactive military strategy in southern Yemen is a risky gamble
Despite formal agreements and vast financial resources, Saudi Arabia has largely failed to integrate the various armed groups in Aden and southern Yemen under one national security sector. This adds to Riyadh’s ineffectiveness in establishing military-political influence in southern Yemen or in limiting the UAE’s continuing leverage. In an effort to boost its influence, since late 2022 Saudi Arabia has established new armed formations in Aden and nearby governorates, such as the Nation Shield Force.
A decline in average annual precipitation, rise in temperatures, and dire water shortages are leading drivers of climate-induced internal migration in Iran. This long-term trend was further exacerbated in 2022 by more intense heat waves, resulting in a spike in seasonal migration.
From the streets to the border: Iran’s growing paranoia toward Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani-Iranian relations have been strained since Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 war with Armenia. However, the situation dramatically worsened in the last few months, with Iran holding two large-scale drills near the border with Azerbaijan and accusing Baku of colluding with its enemies and interfering in its internal affairs.
Mahsa Amini and the future of internet repression in Iran
The death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022 has remained the catalyst and central rallying cry of almost half a year of escalating protests in Iran — protests that have, like many before, and like many will in the future, lived as much online as they have on the ground. What is clearer than ever is that the Iranian state’s relationship to dissent will continue to be predominantly mediated by its practices and attitude toward freedom of information, which, today, largely remains a question of internet access.
The French cultural center shuttered: What does cultural isolation mean for Iranians?
The general policy of the Islamic Republic is to constrain, as much as possible, its citizens’ exposure to foreign cultures and prevent their engagement with the outside world, which explains why cultural ties, even with neighboring or friendly countries, are so limited.
A new momentum: Recalibrating Germany's foreign policy toward the Gulf monarchies
Facing the profound challenge of trying to diversify its energy supply while a destabilizing war rages on in Ukraine, Germany has looked to several Gulf monarchies to forge new energy partnerships. Notwithstanding heated domestic debates over controversial topics such as their human rights record, Berlin should consider a more comprehensive strategic approach toward the Gulf monarchies that encompasses issues beyond energy supply, such as joint efforts in regional integration and development.
The Iran protests and US policy on Tehran’s nuclear program
When the Iranian government faces intense Western criticism, such as over its brutal suppression of the protest movement and its recent executions, it frequently resorts to specific actions, one of which is hostage-taking. Nevertheless, perhaps the most important “hostage” Tehran counts on to influence the positions of Western powers is not their imprisoned citizens, but rather Iran’s nuclear program.
Climate-induced migration in the GCC states: A looming challenge
Gulf states are collectively investing billions of dollars in developing renewable energy. Yet climate change patterns in neighboring regions, combined with rising average temperatures, could eventually trigger more serious climate migration problems for the Gulf countries themselves.
