The United States and Turkey have agreed on a way forward that may marginalize Kurdish forces.
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Fatima Abo Alasrar, Gonul Tol, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, and Michael Sexton and Eliza Campbell.
In late July, Russian officials met with Yemen’s Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik and representatives of the Houthi Supreme Political Council to discuss the resolution of the Yemeni civil war. These meetings underscored Russia’s ability to balance favorable relations with Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the Houthis: Moscow supported Abdulmalik’s vision for a political solution to the Yemeni civil war and concurred five days later with Houthi criticisms of U.S. military deployments to the Persian Gulf.
Elizabeth Tsurkov has courageously put forward what she calls a progressive case for staying in Syria. I would regard myself as progressive but I’m not convinced, even if I would have supported many of her arguments in the past. In arguing for an indefinite presence in Syria, Tsurkov relies on the notion that staying gives the U.S. influence over Ankara and Moscow, serves as a counter to Tehran, and pressures the Assad regime, possibly even creating “internal fissures in its senior ranks” and causing “the Assad regime to institute reforms that would benefit all Syrians.” Those fissures and reforms have been desired for the past eight years but have not yet appeared. It would be easier to argue that withdrawal is more likely to cause them, and to pressure Ankara and Moscow into countering Tehran.
Despite the fiery rhetoric, the long-time conflict between Turkey and the PKK has mostly been a controlled fight following tacit rules. But recent events, including Turkey’s increased efforts to assassinate PKK leaders and the targeted killing of a Turkish consulate official in the Iraqi Kurdish capital on July 17, risk overturning the status quo and ushering in a violent new era.
Ideally, the various sides of the Syrian civil war would seize the opportunity to reach an agreement. However, the Assad regime’s current intransigence and inability counter ISIS necessitate continued U.S. protection of northeastern Syria and efforts to stabilize it until such a deal can be made. This is not an ideal scenario, but the cost of a pullout at this stage will be immense.
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including the Turkish-U.S. crisis meeting in Ankara on Syria, the resumption of U.S.-Taliban negotiations, Trump’s creation of a new “dovish” line on Iran, a rise in Egypt’s poverty levels, Sudan’s democratic transition, the easing of female guardianship rules in Saudi Arabia, and the end of the ceasefire in Idlib, featuring Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Paul Salem, W. Robert Pearson, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Thomas W. Lippman, and Robert S. Ford.
The UAE is reducing its military presence in Yemen and redeploying its forces. This news has spread rapidly, prompting many questions about what it could mean for the continuation or possible conclusion of the war in Yemen. However, the move will not affect the whole country equally.
In light of Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, the United States and its other NATO allies have questioned Turkey’s commitment to the alliance. Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the United States Army Europe and Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis, and MEI’s Gonul Tol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the reasons for President Erdogan’s decision and what it means for the future of U.S.-Turkey relations.
The United Arab Emirates’ decision to draw down its troops in Yemen has led to cautious hope in the war-torn country. Fatima Abo Alasrar, senior analyst at the Arabia Foundation; Katherine Zimmerman, AEI research fellow and research manager for AEI’s Critical Threats Project; and Jerry Feierstein, MEI senior vice president and former U.S. ambassador to Yemen, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss what the drawdown means on the ground and what ramifications the move might have.
Many of the divisions in the Arab World today are ideological and revolve around narratives — carefully constructed ontological representations of both how the world works and how it is supposed to work conforming to clearly set out interests and values. While the old sectarian narratives might still play an underlying role, what divides Arabs from Morocco to Oman are different grand-strategic visions of the region’s future after the Arab Spring.
Turkey began taking delivery of the first Russian S-400s last week despite repeated warnings from the U.S., and the new missile defense system has received a warm welcome. Columnists, analysts, and TV commentators — pro- and anti-Erdogan alike — hailed the delivery of the missile system as the “country’s liberation from the West.” The U.S. response followed several days later, when it officially expelled Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter jet program in retaliation. The U.S. announcement has not changed the jubilant mood in Ankara, although it has underscored the need for Turkey to find — or develop — an alternative.
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including Imran Khan’s visit to the White House, tensions between President Trump and Congress over Turkey’s new S-400 system, escalation in the Straits of Gibraltar and Hormuz, military restructuring in Iraq, increased collaboration on the region’s power supply, and changes to Egypt’s social safety net, featuring Arif Rafiq, Gonul Tol, Ruba Husari, Robert S. Ford, Dr. Ibrahim Saif, and Mirette F. Mabrouk.
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including Turkey’s confrontation with the U.S. over its S-400 defense system, the latest round of Afghan peace talks, the UAE’s drawdown in Yemen, Turkey’s media signaling on Syria, and the 21st consecutive week of protests in Algeria, featuring W. Robert Pearson, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Ibrahim Jalal, Guney Yildiz, and Robert S. Ford.
Reports that the UAE, a key member of the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, has decided to draw down and reposition its troops should be welcomed and taken seriously. It is not a small or symbolic move, but rather a serious, strategic, and thoughtful military and political decision. If reciprocated by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, it could serve as the long-awaited breakthrough in the five-year-old Yemen war.