Monday Briefing: The Middle East is the closest it has ever been to an all-out war
After 10 months of Israel’s war on Gaza, the US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents. As a result, Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides. The Middle East is today the closest it has ever been to an all-out multi-front regional war.
A waiting game as the region teeters on the brink of full-blown war
Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran are explosive events for the region. Coming within 12 hours of each other, they were also an earthquake within the “Axis of Resistance” — but not one likely to encourage de-escalation. Far from it.
Iraq’s competition to control local administrations goes national
In the aftermath of the December 2023 Provincial Council (PC) elections, political parties across Iraq have been seeking to shore up their gains or minimize their losses in the formation of the provincial executive governments, with some provinces, like Kirkuk and Diyala, remaining in deadlock at time of writing. However, in other provinces, such as Ninewa, those now in power are looking to ensure that they are maximizing their new gains by dominating key administrative positions at the district and subdistrict levels.
CENTCOM says ISIS is reconstituting in Syria and Iraq, but the reality is even worse
On July 16, CENTCOM announced that after six months of 2024, “ISIS is on pace to more than double” the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it claimed in 2023. But the reality is far worse than this statement suggested because the data represents only a fraction of ISIS’s actual attacks in Syria and Iraq.
Wide gap between the Egyptian government’s rosy figures and the economic hardship suffered by millions
For Egyptian officials, June should have been a month to celebrate. And yet none of the seeming macroeconomic successes that the government recorded brought much reassurance to the average Egyptian, who has continued to experience currency shortages, an unreliable energy grid, and fears of a resurgent spike in inflation.
New EU aid and investment in Egypt linked to migration control
On June 29, at an aid and investment conference in Cairo, Egypt and the EU reached a €1 billion investment deal, and over 20 MoUs, collectively worth approximately €40 billion in private investment, were signed on the sidelines. Little mention has been made of migration in the new European agreement with Egypt, but there is little doubt that it is a pivotal factor.
No real alternative: The failure of opposition parties in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region
Politics in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region is centered on the ruling duopoly of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Other political parties — broadly referred to as the opposition — offer themselves as alternatives to the KDP and the PUK, but are disorganized, divided, and largely unable to capitalize on public grievances about governance. At present, they do not constitute a viable alternative to the ruling parties.
On this week’s episode, Jehanne Henry, Mirette Mabrouk, and MEI Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discuss Sudan’s civil war and its regional impact. The conflict began on April 15th, 2023, when fighting broke out in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as “Hemedti”). More than a year on, the fighting continues to rage and there seems to be no end in sight to the conflict.
