Research & Commentary Results

Since late June, Russia has expanded its diplomatic involvement in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. While Russia has offered technical assistance to the GERD’s conflicting parties, it has refrained from inserting itself into the Nile dam dispute as a mediator and instead balanced the views of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia in multilateral fora. Russia’s balancing strategy has been positively received in Sudan and Ethiopia but has created latent frictions with Egypt. Russia has persisted with this non-interference policy, as it has largely prevented a spillover of tensions over the GERD to other areas of cooperation with Egypt and believes that its position will help consolidate its partnership with Ethiopia.

يبدو أن قرارات الرئيس قيس سعيّد في 25 يوليو/تموز بتعليق عمل البرلمان والحكومة كانت تحظى بشعبية كبيرة، على الرغم من الانتقادات الحادة من أولئك الذين استنكروا هذه القرارات باعتبارها انقلابًا أو غير دستورية أو تجاوزًا خطيرًا لسلطته. لكن الاحتفالات الجماهيرية في الشوارع التي اندلعت فور إعلانه المتلفز – على الرغم من حظر التجول ليلًا – مثّلت دليلًا على شعبية تحركاته.

It has been a year since the August 2020 announcement of the Abraham Accords, which normalized diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel. The accords were later signed at a White House ceremony attended by President Donald Trump that September. In less than a year the UAE and Israel swiftly exchanged ambassadors. This was the highlight of the first year of normalizing relations between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi. During their first year the accords also successfully passed the unexpected, brutal test of the 11-day military escalation between Israel and Hamas that began in late May 2021.

President Kais Saied’s July 25 decisions to suspend parliament and the government appear to have been largely popular, despite sharp criticism from those denouncing them as a coup, unconstitutional, or a dangerous overstep of his authority. The mass celebrations in the streets that broke out immediately after his televised announcement — in spite of a nighttime curfew — are evidence of the popularity of his moves. Some polling since then, which although unclear in their methodology, also seem to indicate that large majorities approve of Saied’s measures — for now.

The debate over what Saied did, while important because of the legal and political implications, obscures the way in which his actions are themselves an indication of how Tunisian democracy has not been working for Tunisians. And what Saied did is, in the short term, unlikely to yield the results Tunisia needs.

تجنبت الدول الغربية تسمية استيلاء الرئيس قيس سعيّد على الحكومة في تونس بـ”الانقلاب”، كما امتنعت عن اتخاذ خطوات لتعليق المساعدات الاقتصادية لهذا البلد. ففي 27 يوليو/تموز، أجرى وزير الخارجية أنتوني بلينكن اتصالًا هاتفيًا بالرئيس التونسي للحث على احترام المبادئ الديمقراطية والحوار المفتوح مع جميع الفاعلين السياسيين في تونس.

Intissar Fakir and Fadil Aliriza of MEI’s Program on North Africa and the Sahel discuss the context and consequences of Tunisian President Kais Saied’s political maneuvers earlier this week, which opponents were quick to label a “coup.”

The future of economic growth in the GCC is looking better than some analysts expected in the depths of the downturn in 2020. What may be different in this recovery compared to previous economic crises in the Gulf is a more limited fiscal policy space, and more variance among GCC countries in their ability to rebound with smart stimulus. As the global economic recovery now strengthens oil demand, taking advantage of this interim period of the global energy transition will mean accelerating government spending in areas where it can make a long-term impact on productivity growth and increased labor force participation among citizens in the private sector, especially women. Some governments will be able to accelerate productivity, including using highly skilled foreign labor and favorable long-term residency regimes, and others will be simply treading water to satisfy immediate demands of their populations.

There is a new and little noticed geostrategic alliance on the rise. India, Israel, and the UAE have had surface-level, transactional relations for a long time. However, last year’s normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states — chief among them, the UAE — along with Turkey’s bid to return as the leader of a Muslim order and the growing distance between the UAE and Pakistan have created an unlikely and unprecedented “Indo-Abrahamic“ transregional order. This emerging multilateral pact may fill the gap the United States is leaving in the Middle East and has the potential to transform the region’s geopolitics and geoeconomics.

سارع خصوم الرئيس التونسي قيس سعيّد والمعلقون الدوليون الأكثر دراية بمصر إلى إدانة ما وصفوه بـ “الانقلاب”. هنا، إلى جانب الحاجة إلى تقييم الوضع التونسي وفقًا لطبيعته الخاصة، قد يكون من المفيد تنحية التصنيفات القانونية وتلك المرتبطة بالعلوم السياسية جانبًا في الوقت الحالي والتفكر بدلًا من ذلك في سبب احتفال الكثيرين في تونس بقرارات الرئيس الأخيرة.

Masameer County, the Netflix animated television series taking Saudi Arabia by storm, reveals how the country’s creative class, over the last two decades, has posed awareness-raising questions while reevaluating the assumptions and terms used to discuss contentious social issues. This is not the Saudi Arabia of clerics, oil, and the royal family, but the one experienced by everyday people.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Tunisian President Kais Saied’s opponents and international commentators more familiar with Egypt have been quick to condemn what they are calling a “coup.” In addition to the need to assess the Tunisian situation on its own unique terms, it may be useful to set aside legalistic and political science taxonomy for the moment and consider instead why many in Tunisia have celebrated the president’s recent decisions.

While Western banks saw their valuations drop substantially during the first 18 months of the COVID pandemic — and have yet to recover — the declines among Saudi banks have been smaller and their valuations are now closer to, if not above, their pre-pandemic levels. Identifying the drivers of this seemingly contradictory trend helps us better understand the shifts within the Saudi banking sector and the growing impacts of policies related to Vision 2030, the country’s long-term economic development and diversification program.

Although it is home to the Horn of Africa’s main transshipment hub, a host of foreign military bases, and a booming local service sector, Djibouti faces a number of major economic challenges, including new and growing competition, dangerous reliance on Ethiopian power and water supplies, climate change, and high levels of debt. This is why Djibouti needs a Plan B for what comes next after the presidency of its long-time leader, Ismail Omar Guelleh, in power since 1999.